From TradingView · · 1m 30s
Bitcoin coils at support before the Fed
BTC is pinned between $76k support and a $80k ceiling, and Wednesday's FOMC decides which one breaks.
In brief
BTC is pinned between $76k support and a $80k ceiling, and Wednesday's FOMC decides which one breaks. The 25bp hike is already priced in, so Warsh's guidance, not the decision itself, is what moves BTC out of the $75k to $82k box. Originally reported by TradingView.
Last week ground lower
BTC slid from a $80,557 high down to a $76,044 weekly low. The midpoint sits at $78,300, and price spent the week working its way down through it.
“Last weeks high: $80,557.00 Last weeks low: $76,044.79”
CPI day was a trap
A spike toward $80k on the CPI print got rejected immediately. Price fell back into the $76,000 to $77,000 support zone and retested it on Sep 13.
“a spike toward $80k that was immediately rejected”
Boxed in and coiled
BTC bounced back above the $77,172 level, or the 0.25 retracement. It is now de-risked at support, capped by $80,000, and roughly boxed between $75,000 and $82,000.
“Price is coiled and de-risked right at support ahead of a FOMC”
Wednesday is the swing factor
The Sept 16 FOMC dominates the week. A 25bp hike to 3.75 to 4.00% is heavily expected, so Warsh's guidance carries the move, with the Sept 15 CLARITY Act vote alongside it.
“Warsh's guidance is the real swing factor”
Bull case: ETF demand holds
ETFs pulled in about $987M last week even through the drop. If BTC defends $76.5k to $77k and guidance comes in soft, a squeeze through $80,000 opens $83,000.
“durable ETF demand at ~$987M last week despite the drop”
Bear case: sticky inflation
PPI at 5.4% and CPI at 3.4% pushed hike odds to roughly 88%. Hawkish guidance breaks the weekly low toward $72,327, and a rejection at the midpoint is the trigger.
“even a priced-in hike has marked bearish pivots this year”
What it means
The 25bp hike is already priced in, so Warsh's guidance, not the decision itself, is what moves BTC out of the $75k to $82k box.
