Downtrend with a fresh bounce

On the hourly chart, gold is still in a falling channel. It bounced from support at 4,258 to 4,260 and made a higher low after dipping below recent lows.

Sellers are losing steam

RSI has climbed from about 30, which is oversold, to about 55. It also shows a bullish divergence, a sign that the selling is weakening. That alone doesn't confirm a trend reversal.

“RSI moving above 50 alone does not confirm a complete trend reversal.”

4,318 is the first hurdle

If gold breaks 4,318 and holds above it on the hourly chart, buyers could aim for 4,401 and then 4,448 to 4,460. An hourly close above 4,401 would be stronger proof of a turn.

“For today's session, 4,318 is the immediate decision level.”

Rejection keeps sellers in charge

The hourly trend stays bearish while gold is inside the channel and below 4,401. If price gets rejected at 4,318 or 4,401, sellers could aim for 4,282, then 4,258, then 4,228.

4,228 is the line

The zone from 4,228 to 4,258 is where buyers have been stepping in. Holding above it keeps the bounce alive. An hourly close below 4,228 would cancel the recovery and raise the risk of further falls.

The Fed can override the chart

The Fed is meeting now and announces its rate decision Wednesday. Rising bond yields and a stronger dollar have been weighing on gold, so the decision could swamp any chart level.