Gold at critical technical level

Gold is trading at the 0.786 Fibonacci level, a key support that has been tested multiple times since October 2025. Price continues to respect this level with daily candle closes.

Indecision building in downtrend

A daily doji candle printed today, showing indecision within the downtrend. Bulls have defended the 50-day moving average for two consecutive days.

Markets price in 25 basis point hike

There's an 86% to 90% probability the Fed will raise rates from 3.75% to 4% tomorrow. Rate hikes traditionally hurt gold by raising the opportunity cost of holding it.

“Each single basis point increase in the 10-year real yield since late February 2026 has reduced gold prices by roughly $20 per ounce.”

Major banks still bullish on gold

Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 by year end, JPMorgan sits at $4,500 for Q4. Bank of America and HSBC also hold targets above current prices despite the expected hike.

Inflation expectations could offset hike

If rising yields are driven by inflation expectations from oil's breakout rather than real growth, real yields could stay flat. That would weaken gold's traditional headwind from rate hikes.

Warsh's tone matters more than hike

Since the hike is already priced in, the market will react more to forward guidance. A balanced tone acknowledging supply-side inflation pressures could give gold room to rally.

Gold still in bear market

Until gold makes a genuine higher high, any bounce is likely to fall short of the last peak at $4,700. Significant volatility is expected around tomorrow's decision.