From TradingView · · 1m 50s
Gold's bearish structure hides a bullish pullback
A trader explains why gold's short-term rally doesn't mean the longer-term downtrend has reversed.
In brief
A trader explains why gold's short-term rally doesn't mean the longer-term downtrend has reversed. A bullish move on a smaller timeframe can be just a pullback within a larger bearish trend, not a reversal. Originally reported by TradingView.
Gold shows mixed signals across timeframes
Gold's 4-hour chart is bearish while its 15-minute chart is bullish. The key is understanding that the shorter-term rally is just a pullback within the larger downtrend, not a reversal.
The pullback has a specific purpose
The trader expects gold to rally into a marked 4-hour point of interest before reversing lower. This pullback is not random but part of a planned setup to reach a specific price level.
“I am treating the 15M bullish movement as the pullback phase within the broader 4H bearish structure.”
Liquidity sweep before the reversal
As gold approaches the 4-hour point of interest, the market may sweep liquidity around the highs before reversing. This liquidity grab is expected before the bearish continuation begins.
“Bullish pullback → reach 4H POI → take liquidity → bearish reaction → continuation lower.”
Confirmation matters more than price level
Reaching the point of interest alone is not enough to sell. The trader waits for bearish confirmation signals that show sellers are actually taking control before entering a trade.
“I don't sell simply because price reaches the POI. I want the market to demonstrate that sellers are actually taking control.”
Timeframe hierarchy explains the setup
The 4-hour chart sets the broader direction (bearish), the 15-minute shows the current path (bullish pullback), and the point of interest marks where the reversal should occur. Each timeframe serves a specific role.
Don't confuse pullback with reversal
A bullish move on a smaller timeframe does not mean the larger timeframe has turned bullish. Gold's 15-minute rally is helping complete a 4-hour pullback, not signaling a trend change.
“A bullish lower timeframe does not automatically mean the higher timeframe has turned bullish.”
The downside target below the point of interest
If gold reaches the point of interest, takes liquidity, and shows bearish confirmation, the next target is the marked 4-hour sell-side liquidity below. The broader bearish structure remains intact until proven otherwise.
What it means
A bullish move on a smaller timeframe can be just a pullback within a larger bearish trend, not a reversal.
