From TradingView · · 50s
US10Y vs DXY Correlation Shift
US10Y and DXY may reconnect or exhaust yield growth ahead.
In brief
US10Y and DXY may reconnect or exhaust yield growth ahead. US10Y yield and DXY could align or reverse as yields test 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Originally reported by TradingView.
Historical Decoupling
US10Y vs DXY decoupled aggressively in october 2018 after multi-year lockstep.
2020 Pandemic Bottom
A definitive macro bottom formed in 2020 at the onset of the pandemic.
Current Correlation Realignment
DXY surged alongside us10y as aggressive tightening began in 2022.
Yield Technical Setup
Yields consolidated into a corrective box after wave three peak.
DXY Corrective Retracement
DXY pulled back into critical support near 23.6% to 38.2% fibonacci retracement.
Key Scenarios
If yields hit 161.8% extension, dxy completes catch-up rally; if breakout fails, yields retrace to test lower fib levels.
The takeaway
US10Y yield and DXY could align or reverse as yields test 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
