From TradingView · · 1m
VIX Tops 30, S&P 500 Typically Gains 3.1%
When VIX crosses 30, S&P 500 usually rises 3.1% next month.
In brief
When VIX crosses 30, S&P 500 usually rises 3.1% next month. The S&P 500 typically gains 3.1% in the following month after the VIX first rises above 30. Originally reported by TradingView.
VIX Fear Gauge
The VIX is the market's fear gauge. When it climbs above 30, headlines usually read like a crash.
Signal Days Defined
A signal day is the VIX's first close above 30 after at least 21 trading days at 30 or below.
34 Signal Days Found
Over 36 years, 34 signal days were identified where the VIX first rose above 30.
Typical Monthly Gain
The S&P 500 typically gains 3.1% in the following month after a signal day.
Most Common Outcome
The S&P 500 was up after 22 of 34 signal days, 65% of the time.
Typical Dip Before Gain
The S&P 500 typically dips 2.4% below the signal day's close before gaining.
The main idea
The S&P 500 typically gains 3.1% in the following month after the VIX first rises above 30.
