From TradingView · · 1m 30s
Why this Bitcoin cycle could snap the curve
A trader argues Bitcoin's shrinking cycles have coiled into the tightest point yet, right as government debt math gets ugly.
In brief
A trader argues Bitcoin's shrinking cycles have coiled into the tightest point yet, right as government debt math gets ugly. Each Bitcoin cycle has swung less than the last, and the trader reads that compression, plus bond market stress, as setup for a permanent break above the curve. Originally reported by…
Pumps are getting smaller
Each Bitcoin cycle swings less than the one before it. The moves up and the moves down have both shrunk, which is the whole basis for this call.
“Bitcoin experiences smaller and smaller pumps and dumps in each cycle”
Two cycles never finished
The 2019 to 2022 and 2023 to 2025 runs both ended early. Demand quality was weak and the market never reached the euphoria or extreme greed zone.
“We were unable to see the peaks of the euphoria zone or extreme greed”
The tightest point yet
Price is now squeezed into the narrowest part of the yield curve. That compression is where the trader expects a permanent break through the ceiling.
“we are in the tightest area of this yield curve”
The bottoms left a signature
Previous cycle lows printed monthly Inverted Hammer and Hammer candles at the end of the downtrend. The same pattern is the reason to expect more upside, not less.
“a combination of monthly Inverted Hammer and Hammer candles at the end of the downtrend”
Governments are paying debt with debt
New bonds get sold to cover interest on old bonds. Injecting more money can backfire by pushing yields even higher, which is exactly the trap being described.
“government bonds that print dirty money like garbage”
Hard assets over dollars
With the dollar losing value year after year, the pitch is gold, Bitcoin and a few strong altcoins as the escape hatch. Not financial advice, per the author.
“I would definitely choose harder assets such as gold, Bitcoin, and a number of strong altcoins”
In short
Each Bitcoin cycle has swung less than the last, and the trader reads that compression, plus bond market stress, as setup for a permanent break above the curve.
