From TradingView · · 40s
XAUUSD 1h: noise hits ATR stops more often
Gold price often reaches stop-loss levels set by ATR calculations.
In brief
Gold price often reaches stop-loss levels set by ATR calculations. Gold price hits ATR stop-loss levels more frequently than random chance predicts. Originally reported by TradingView.
The question
How often does gold price reach stop-loss levels set by ATR calculations?
What was measured
1,116 non-overlapping events in 22,427 confirmed bars each against a random walk of same volatility.
Hit rates
1 ATR: 72.3% hit rate (-2.6 pts), 1.5 ATR: 60.1% (-3.1), 2 ATR: 50.2% (-2.3), 3 ATR: 32.8% (-1.6).
Short stops hit more
Short stop was hit 75.4% of the time vs 69.3% for long stop at 1 ATR.
What matters most
Gold price hits ATR stop-loss levels more frequently than random chance predicts.
