Collins faces her toughest test

With two weeks until midterms, Susan Collins, Maine's Republican senator, is in a tight race against Democrat Troy Jackson. Democrats are favored to take the House but Senate control is harder.

Collins is the only Republican senator in a Harris state

Susan Collins is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that Kamala Harris won in twenty twenty-four. Maine has grown more blue around her over thirty years.

Her secret weapon: bringing home the bacon

Collins's official Senate website features a map of projects she helped fund as chair of the Senate Appropriations committee, including hospitals, bridges, affordable housing, public transportation and water systems.

But Trump's unpopularity looms large

This year, all of that money might not be enough for Mainers to look past their frustration with President Donald Trump. His approval rating is so low that Collins must suspend political gravity.

Maine voters are angry at Trump

There is a lot of anger for the president in Maine. The state has been on the receiving end of what Trump critics say is harm he has caused through his policies and rhetoric.

Canada attacks hurt Maine tourism

Trump's attacks on Canada and suggestion that it become the fifty-first state have hurt Maine's tourism industry. Many Canadians vacation in Maine and cross-border relationships are strong.

Tariffs damage Maine's wood industry

Tariffs have hurt Maine because much of the wood and lumber grown and cut there is shipped to Canada for processing, then shipped back across the United States.

ICE enforcement adds to anger

There was a shooting of an individual in Biddeford involving ICE. Immigration enforcement has become an issue in this race and adds to voter anger at the Trump administration.

Some Collins voters are switching sides

Voters who supported Susan Collins six years ago at the end of the first Trump administration say the last six years have made it impossible for them to vote for her again.

Collins caught between two Republican camps

On her left are voters furious with her for not standing up to Trump enough. On her right are hardcore Trump supporters who think she stands up to him too much.

Collins aligns with Bush-era Republicans

In Thursday's debate, Collins noted she had only endorsed one Republican president: George W. Bush. She represents a Bush-style Republican Party rather than Trump-style Republicanism.

“I have been a senator under five different presidents.”

Republicans give Collins special leeway

A Republican told reporters that President Trump demands loyalty from those he supports, but there are different rules for Susan Collins. Republicans know she is in a bind running in a blue state.

“There are rules for Republicans and that there are rules for Susan Collins.”

Home heating oil prices threaten Collins

Home heating oil prices are above six dollars a gallon as winter approaches. About eighty percent of homes heated by home heating oil are in the Northeast, including many in Maine.

Trump tried to cut heating assistance

The Trump administration tried to eliminate a low-income program helping Mainers with home heating oil costs. Republicans from the gubernatorial candidate to congressional candidates broke with the president on this.

Collins's fate tied to Trump's unpopularity

If Collins loses reelection, a lot of it will be put at the feet of President Trump. Her political durability may finally run out because of who the president was, not her record.

“If she does lose, a lot of it will be put at the feet of President Trump.”

A different era of Republicanism

Collins represents a different kind of era of the Republican Party. In an earlier iteration, bringing home the bacon to a small state would have worked politically and kept her onside.

Her win or loss will tell a story

If Collins wins reelection in twenty twenty-six, it proves there is still goodwill for politicians who deliver funding to smaller states. If she loses, Trump's unpopularity will be the reason.