From Vox · Caitlin Dewey · · 2m
Could Democrats finally kill the Electoral College?
A wonky interstate compact to award electors to the national popular vote winner is suddenly within reach, but even its architect now fears it could cause constitutional chaos.
In brief
A wonky interstate compact to award electors to the national popular vote winner is suddenly within reach, but even its architect now fears it could cause constitutional chaos. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which would sidestep the Electoral College by awarding electors to the national popular vote…
The compact explained
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact is an agreement between states to award their electors to the winner of the national popular vote, regardless of how their own state voted.
How it works
Once enough states sign on, their combined electoral votes would guarantee the presidency to whoever wins the national popular vote, effectively sidestepping the Electoral College.
Current signatories
Eighteen states and Washington, DC, have signed on to the compact thus far, representing two hundred twenty-two votes.
Democrats could tip the balance
With Democrats soon controlling state governments in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, the compact could finally gain the critical mass to become reality.
Lawmakers already discussing it
Politico reported on Tuesday that lawmakers in several states, including Pennsylvania, are already discussing the possibility of joining the compact.
The architect's origin story
Yale University professor Akhil Amar sketched out the concept after the two thousand election, when George W. Bush won despite losing the popular vote to Al Gore by roughly half a percentage point.
Amar's growing concerns
All signatory states have leaned Democratic, making the compact look partisan. Amar now calls it a doomsday machine that could trigger constitutional problems.
“doomsday machine”
The recount problem
The compact leaves each participating state to calculate the national total without centralized oversight. A very close election could leave states disagreeing over who won.
Why trust matters now
In the current environment, it is hard to imagine a centralized body that both parties would find credible. People just do not trust institutions the way they did in two thousand.
Amar's final warning
Amar thinks the small risk of electoral disruption outweighs the benefits of the compact. The one thing the United States really needs to avoid as the stabilizing superpower in the world is constitutional chaos.
“The one thing we really do need to avoid as the stabilizing superpower in the world is constitutional chaos.”
What to remember
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which would sidestep the Electoral College by awarding electors to the national popular vote winner, could gain critical mass if Democrats control Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin, but one of its architects now warns it risks constitutional chaos.
