Democrats gain with Catholics, lose some Jewish voters

Religious voters shifted in 2026

For years American politics locked religious voters firmly to the right and nonreligious voters to the left. The 2026 midterms scrambled that pattern with surprising changes across multiple faith groups.

Catholics swung hard left

Catholic voters moved left by more than 20 points. Exit polls showed Democrats narrowly won the Catholic vote 50-49, putting Catholics among the top groups that swung left this year.

A dramatic reversal from 2024

In 2024, Catholics backed Trump 59-39 according to exit polls and 55-43 according to Pew Research Center.

White Catholics and Latino Catholics both shifted

Religion scholar Ryan Burge found white Catholics swung about 9 points toward Democrats. Latino Catholics, most opposed to Trump's immigration and deportation policies, concentrated in the Southwest, drove Democratic gains in Texas.

Catholic districts flipped dramatically

Of the 12 districts with the highest share of Catholics, the average swing was about 15 points toward Democrats. Democrats won eight of these seats and gained in all 12.

Texas Senate race showed Catholic shift

In Texas, counties with higher shares of Latino Catholics were much more likely to support winning Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, according to Burge's analysis.

Why Catholics moved left remains unclear

Catholics tend to vote like the median American voter, making it hard to pinpoint unique motivators.

A new Catholic swing vote emerging

The decline in abortion politics and a more active Vatican with an American pope willing to push Catholic social teachings aligned with Democratic views could reshape Catholic voting heading into 2028.

Jewish voters slightly moved right

Exit polls showed Jewish support for Democrats fell to 68-31 in 2026 from 78-22 in 2024.The Jewish Electorate Institute found Democrats held a 44-point advantage, smaller than 2024 and nearly 20 points smaller than 2018.

Israel became a flashpoint

Democrats shifted how they talk about Israel and AIPAC with increasingly open criticism of the Israeli government's actions. Some Jewish Democrats and Republicans responded with charges of antisemitism, while some Republicans leaned into overt Islamophobia.

Michigan showed the biggest Jewish shift

Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed underperformed other Democratic candidates in precincts with large Jewish populations. A Michigan exit poll showed Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers winning a majority of Jewish voters 52-47.

Jewish voters worry about both parties

A quarter of Republican Jews reported concern their party is too accepting of antisemitic rhetoric, while a third said it's becoming too much of a home for white nationalists and the far right.

Jewish Democrats also express concerns

More than a third of Jewish Democrats worry their party is becoming too accepting of antisemitic rhetoric, while a quarter think it's becoming too much of a home for socialists and the far left.

Evangelicals stayed home in 2026

Evangelical Christians backed Republicans 82-16, consistent with 2024 support for Trump. But exit polls suggest they made up a smaller share of the electorate, indicating lower turnout and enthusiasm.

Evangelical districts swung left sharply

The 10 congressional districts with the highest share of evangelical voters, concentrated in Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Tennessee, each swung left by an average of 23 points.

Mainline Protestants delivered for Democrats

Mainline Protestant denominations like Episcopalians, Presbyterians, and Methodists won many House and Senate seats that flipped for Democrats in Iowa, Kansas, and Texas. Heavily mainline districts swung 15 points toward Democrats.

Nonevangelical Protestants gained for Democrats

Exit polls showed Democrats gained among Protestants and nonevangelical Christians, moving from backing Republicans 63-36 in 2024 to 60-39 in 2026, a 6-point swing on the margins.

Religious voters may now be swing voters

The 2026 results suggest religious voters of all creeds can function as swing voters, cracking up old alliances like the religious right and offering hints of new winning coalitions for Democrats.

“religious voters of all creeds can come to function as swing voters too, cracking up old alliances, like on the religious right”