Trump's Latino support collapsed

After gaining Latino voters in 2024, Trump now trails Democrats by 35 points among Hispanic likely voters on the generic ballot. That's a 28-point swing in just two years.

Stop calling them the sleeping giant

Stephanie Valencia, who leads Equis research on Latino voters, says the group should be called the swinging giant. A third of Latinos identify as independent, making them the true deciding voters.

“We should be called the swinging giant based on how much shift we have seen election to election.”

Economy is the main issue

Trump's net approval with Latinos on cost of living is negative 52. Latino men aged 18 to 39 rate him at negative 63 on this issue, worse than his overall approval.

Latinos feel inflation harder

Latinos make up more of the wage workforce than any other racial group. With lower savings and home ownership rates, they lack safety nets when wages drop and inflation rises.

“Latinos make up more of the wage workforce than any other racial subgroup. And so what that means is when wages are down and inflation is high, Latinos feel it more.”

Trump promised economic empowerment

Trump argued he would economically empower Hispanic communities more than social causes. But tariffs and rising gas prices made people feel worse off, not better.

Immigration promises weren't believed

During his campaign, Trump said he'd focus on criminals and border security. Mainstream media covered these claims, and many Latino voters believed him initially.

Broad deportations shattered trust

Trump expanded deportations far beyond criminals and recent arrivals. In December 2024, 65 percent of Latino Trump voters thought he'd target only criminals. Today, 62 percent say he's going after all undocumented immigrants.

Interior raids changed everything

The backlash isn't about border security. It's about raids in the interior, family separations, and citizens and legal residents swept up in enforcement operations.

Approval collapses when truth emerges

Latino Trump voters who still believe he's targeting only criminals give him plus 84 net approval. Among those who concluded he's targeting everyone, approval collapses to plus 31.

Both parties broke promises

Sixty-eight percent of Latinos say Republicans promised to deport criminals but deported hardworking people. Sixty-seven percent say Democrats promised immigration reform and never delivered.

Democrats can't assume Latino support

Democrats shouldn't assume Latino voters will automatically support them because of Trump's failures. The Democratic brand has suffered 20 years of undelivered immigration reform promises.

“I think it is a huge mistake for Democrats to assume or to rest on their laurels and think that because of what people are feeling around Trump and Republicans and the sense of disappointment and broken promises, that that is automatically going to translate to them as a party and as a brand.”

Spanish language ads matter hugely

More than 70 percent of Latinos who see an ad in Spanish think that candidate cares more about them. That's a respect effect, not persuasion, and it's enormous for the cost of one ad buy.

Campaigns make basic mistakes

Many campaigns translate English ads directly into Spanish instead of tailoring them culturally. They also treat English and Spanish speakers as separate categories when voters often shift between both languages.

Stop treating Latinos as a monolith

The biggest error is treating Latino voters as a single bloc that moves in unison. The fastest-moving division isn't country of origin. It's age, with a million new Latino voters turning 18 every year.

Young Latinos know only chaos

An 18-year-old voting in 2026 was born when Barack Obama was elected. Their political era is chaos, Covid, and corruption. They don't remember Obama's coalition or its optimism.

“There are a million Latinos who turn 18 every single year, and an 18-year-old who turns 18 this year and will vote in this year's election was born the year Barack Obama was elected president.”

Demographics aren't destiny

Neither party owns Latino voters. Demographics have proven not to be destiny. Effort and intention matter more than demographic trends.

“Demographics have proven not to be destiny, effort and intention matter more.”

ICE stop injures US citizen

Federal agents stopped a man on Howard Street in Evanston, Illinois on September 20. He was a US citizen, not the person they were looking for. Agents left him with head, neck, and teeth injuries.

Community demands answers

Evanston residents are furious after the ICE stop. The community has been aware of immigration enforcement impacts since Operation Midway Blitz and heightened Border Patrol activity in the Chicago area.

Reparations case tests Evanston

Evanston passed a reparations program that the federal government is now challenging in court. The case will likely continue through the end of 2026 and into 2027, testing the city's progressive values.