Abortion fades nationally, surges in Maine

Across the country, abortion mentions in Democratic Senate ads dropped to under 5 percent. In Maine, it's 15 percent of spending, making it the second-biggest issue after Trump.

Democrats' biggest abortion bet

Planned Parenthood is spending $600,000 against Collins, and a Democratic super PAC devoted 70 percent of its Maine ad budget to abortion. This is the race that has to work for the movement.

Why Collins is the target

She's the only Republican senator up for reelection in a state Trump lost. She's seeking her sixth term while Democrats lead the generic ballot by 9 points.

The Kavanaugh vote haunts her

Collins cast the pivotal vote to confirm Kavanaugh in 2018, assuring voters he considered Roe settled law. He voted to overturn it in 2022. She says she has no regrets.

“not regret”

Maine voters don't list abortion as top issue

Fewer than half a percent of Maine voters name abortion as their top concern. Yet 72 percent say it should be legal in all or most circumstances.

Maine expanded abortion access anyway

Since Democrats took control in 2018, Maine expanded who can provide abortions, required insurance coverage, eliminated patient cost-sharing, and loosened viability restrictions.

Collins claims Maine is protected

Collins argues the Dobbs decision hasn't impacted Maine because the state expanded its own law. Abortion advocates say this misses the point about federal threats.

Collins keeps confirming anti-abortion judges

This month she voted to confirm Joshua Dunlap to federal appeals court despite objections from 20 Maine organizations citing his abortion record.

Her pro-choice record is complicated

Collins voted against Amy Coney Barrett and for all three liberal justices. But she's also voted for 188 Biden judges and co-sponsored a bill to codify Roe.

Planned Parenthood quietly deleted her praise

In May 2025, Planned Parenthood published a memo highlighting Collins' support for abortion access. This summer, they quietly removed it from their website.

Mainers see two different Collinses

Voters rate her highly on bringing federal money home but poorly on Supreme Court votes. They've historically separated her from national Republicans.

Abortion doesn't top voters' lists

Political scientists say affordability, healthcare, and jobs rank higher than abortion access in Maine voters' minds right now.

But the Kavanaugh vote still moves people

When asked directly about Collins' vote for Kavanaugh and its role in overturning Roe, voters find it extremely salient. It works as a character test.

“it is extremely salient, and it moves that voter”

Abortion voters have shifted

Before Dobbs, abortion motivated Republican voters. Now single-issue abortion voters are more likely to be Democrats, younger women, and women of color.

Abortion ads target two groups

First, they aim to turn out Democratic women unenthusiastic about Jackson. Second, they target older women who voted for Collins before but may switch.

Jackson once opposed abortion entirely

In 2010, Jackson said abortion should never be legal and wouldn't say if exceptions should exist for rape, incest, or the mother's life. He has since completely reversed.

Jackson evolved through conversations

Jackson credits talks with women, doctors, and community members for changing his mind. In 2023, he co-sponsored one of the nation's most expansive post-viability abortion laws.

Jackson shielded providers from other states

In 2024, he shepherded through a shield law protecting Maine providers and patients from other states' bans, despite bomb threats and threats from 16 Republican attorneys general.

The race is too complicated to prove anything

If Collins loses, abortion groups will claim victory. If she wins, they'll blame the messy primary. Either way, the race probably can't definitively answer whether abortion votes have consequences.

What's really at stake

Reproductive rights leaders say without a Democratic Senate, nothing they want gets a vote. This race decides who holds the seat.