The Democratic gamble

Democrats believe their brand is too toxic in deep red states to win Senate races. They are clearing the field for independent candidates instead, hoping fresh faces can peel away Republican and independent voters.

Three states, three independents

In Nebraska, South Dakota, and Idaho, the Democratic primary winners have quit the race to set up two-way matchups between Republican incumbents and independent challengers. Democrats tried the same in Montana but failed.

The Osborn precedent

Dan Osborn, an industrial mechanic and Navy veteran, came surprisingly close to unseating Senator Deb Fischer in Nebraska in twenty twenty-four, losing by just six point seven percentage points when Trump won the state by twenty points.

Osborn's plain-spoken appeal

Osborn did not graduate from college, said he did not own a suit, and has forearm tattoos. He led a strike at a Kellogg's plant in twenty twenty-one that won concessions before he was later fired.

Anti-corporate messaging

Osborn's campaign focused on criticizing monopolistic corporations. He also took moderate or conservative stances on cultural issues, supporting gun rights and President Donald Trump's border wall.

“If Trump needs help building a wall, well, I'm pretty handy.”

Brian Bengs in South Dakota

Brian Bengs, a Navy and Air Force veteran and former park ranger, ran for Senate as a Democrat in twenty twenty-two and lost in a landslide. He is now running as an independent against Senator Mike Rounds.

Bengs on economic concentration

Bengs told me that our economic and political systems have the same problem: too much concentration of money and not enough competition, producing poor results for regular folks in both.

“Our economic system and our political system have the same problem, which is too much concentration of money and not enough competition.”

Todd Achilles in Idaho

Todd Achilles, an Army veteran and former corporate executive, is running as an independent against eighty-three-year-old Senator Jim Risch. Achilles previously wrote for the American Economic Liberties Project, the left's leading anti-monopoly think tank.

Achilles on corporate power

Achilles said toxic concentrated corporate power, brought on by wave after wave of mergers and consolidation, is destroying free markets and corrupting the political system in the United States.

“You can't tell the difference between a corporatist Republican and a corporatist Democrat anymore.”

A shared platform emerges

These independents are on a group text together and share similar platforms. They focus on economic populism and taking on corporate power while downplaying cultural issues that divide left and right.

“The real fight that we need to have is big money versus little folks, the regular folks.”

The Fulcrum Caucus plan

If elected, these independents plan to form a Fulcrum Caucus and refuse to caucus with either party. They would deny a majority to both Democrats and Republicans, forcing negotiation to get anything done.

“If a couple of us, maybe just as few as two independents, get across the line, we can deny a majority to either party.”

Achilles on Senate reforms

Achilles said the independents would demand major reforms including term limits and age limits for members of Congress and Supreme Court justices, restrictions on dark money spending, and bans on gerrymandering.

Osborn breaks ranks

Osborn has changed his position on the Fulcrum Caucus strategy. He told me he has completely done a one eighty and now plans to caucus with everybody, trying to work with both parties at once.

“Caucusing with nobody, you wouldn't get anything done. I'm gonna caucus with everybody.”

Questions about independence

All three independents have recent ties to the Democratic Party. Bengs was a registered Democrat for thirteen months in twenty twenty-two. Achilles joined the Democratic Party in twenty twenty-four to get appointed to a state legislature seat.

“My biggest weakness in this race is the fact that I ran as a Democrat in 2022, and that I was a registered Democrat for 13 months.”

Osborn's leaked recordings

Leaked recordings show Osborn striking a very different tone with Democrats than in public. He called Trump's border wall a symbol of racism and a joke. He also mocked rural Nebraska voters, saying their lives probably suck.

“The Trump border wall he'd publicly backed was a symbol of racism. It's a joke. It does nothing, you know.”

Republican attack line

Republicans argue these candidates are secretly Democrats. Bernadette Breslin, press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said when you are funded by Democrats, hold the same policies, and let campaigns be run by Democrat consultants, you are a Democrat.

“When you're funded by Democrats, hold the same policies as Democrats, and let your campaigns be run by Democrat consultants with ties to Chuck Schumer and Zohran Mamdani, you're a Democrat.”

The math in red states

In twenty twenty-four, Trump won South Dakota by thirty points and Idaho by thirty-six points. Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, said it is just hard to find the votes in those states for any challenger.

Osborn's best shot

Osborn has the proof point of coming within seven points of winning in twenty twenty-four and faces a more unfavorable national environment for the GOP. But his leaked comments may have damaged his reputation for independence.

Osborn's ambitions

On a leaked recording, Osborn mused that if he beats Pete Ricketts, a shop floor mechanic beating an entrenched Republican billionaire in Nebraska, he will be one of the most popular politicians overnight and people will want to listen to what he has to say.

“If I beat Pete Ricketts, if a shop floor mechanic, independent mechanic, beats an entrenched Republican billionaire in a state like Nebraska, I will be one of the most popular politicians overnight, right?”