Trump's Latino surge then collapse

Trump won 48 percent of Latino voters in 2024, up from 36 percent in 2020. But his approval among those voters has plummeted from 93 percent to 66 percent in just 18 months.

The economy is the main driver

Latino voters are experiencing rising costs and stagnant wages. In 2024, they blamed Biden. Now they blame Trump for failing to deliver on promises to lower prices.

Latinos feel inflation harder

Latinos make up more of the wage workforce than any other racial group. They also have lower savings and home ownership rates, so economic downturns hit them disproportionately hard.

“Latinos make up more of the wage workforce than any other part or any other racial subgroup. And so what that means is when wages are down and inflation is high, Latinos feel it more.”

The swinging giant

A third of Latino voters consider themselves independent or apolitical. This swinging middle decides every election, making Latinos the most volatile voting bloc in American politics.

“We should be called the "swinging giant" based on how much shift we have seen election to election.”

Campaigns translate ads poorly

The biggest mistake campaigns make is simply translating English ads into Spanish word-for-word. Spanish-language messaging requires cultural nuance and original writing, not Google Translate.

Browser settings miss bilingual voters

Campaigns target Spanish-language ads only to voters with Spanish-language browser settings. But many bilingual Latinos consume Spanish content while using English browsers.

Spanish ads signal respect

Research shows over 70 percent of Latinos who see an ad in Spanish believe that party or candidate cares more about Latinos. The language choice itself matters enormously.

“over 70 percent of Latinos who see an ad in Spanish think that party or candidate cares more about Latinos”

Deportation promises were buried

During the 2024 campaign, mainstream media focused on Trump's promises to target serious criminals and secure the border. Most Latino voters didn't realize his plans included broad interior deportations.

The broken promise on deportations

Now 62 percent of Latinos believe Trump wants to deport undocumented immigrants broadly. Those who voted for him feel most regretful about immigration, citing broken promises.

Three issues driving the backlash

The economy, the war, and immigration are the three main factors behind Trump's collapsing approval with Latino voters. He's now underwater on all three.

“It's the economy, it's the war, and it's immigration. It's those three things.”

Economy worse than first term

In Trump's first term, his approval on the economy was better than his overall job approval. Now he's been underwater with Latinos on the cost of living almost the entire second term.

Democrats can't assume Latino support

Democrats shouldn't assume Latino backlash to Trump automatically translates to Democratic support. The Democratic brand has suffered repeated blows, including 20 years of undelivered immigration reform.

Democrats lost the thread

Latino voters felt Democrats were focused on everything except their families and everyday concerns. Combined with border chaos and broken immigration promises, Democrats lost credibility.

The 2026 wild card

Latino voters remain the most unpredictable bloc in American politics. Their massive swing away from Trump signals they could reshape the 2026 midterms.