The midterm question

If Democrats win the House and Senate in November, will they stop President Trump's agenda? The evidence suggests no, despite his unpopularity.

Trump's approval ratings

Pew had Trump's approval at thirty percent in late September to early October, his lowest of his second term. Reuters slash Ipsos had him at thirty two percent in early October.

Democratic advantage on ballots

Democrats are up eight points on the generic House ballot according to Pew. Ballotpedia's September average put Democrats at fifty percent to Republicans' forty three percent.

Trump ignores political incentives

Trump initiated a war with Iran that no one wanted and pushes mass deportation despite Republican opposition. He is increasingly consumed by vanity projects in Washington.

Trump's power expansion strategy

Trump has spent two years growing executive power to insulate himself from political consequences. The courts have largely backed his efforts to expand presidential authority.

Firing agency officials

Trump brought independent agencies to heel by firing members of the National Labor Relations Board and Federal Trade Commission. The Supreme Court sided with him six to three in Trump v. Slaughter.

Overturning precedent

The Supreme Court overturned the ninety year old Humphrey's Executor precedent that had limited when presidents could remove agency heads. The Court refused five to four to let him remove Fed governor Lisa Cook.

Military and immigration actions

Trump federalized National Guard troops for domestic purposes and pursued unilateral military action like Caribbean boat strikes on suspected drug smugglers, breaking precedent.

Withholding congressional funds

Trump unilaterally withheld roughly eight hundred million dollars in congressionally approved funds from eleven programs supporting refugees, asylum seekers, minority business development, and housing counseling.

The unitary executive theory

Trump's White House openly subscribes to the unitary executive theory from Project twenty twenty five, which argues the president has total control over the executive branch including the FBI and Justice Department.

Trump's own words on power

At a Turning Point conference in twenty nineteen, Trump said: Then I have an Article II, where I have the right to do whatever I want as president.

“Then I have an Article II, where I have the right to do whatever I want as president.”

Stephen Miller on presidential power

Stephen Miller said on CNN's News Central that the president has plenary authority, meaning Trump's power is unreviewable and unquestioned. He froze after making the assertion.

Gerrymandering limits Democratic gains

Mid decade redistricting cut competitive House seats from eighty seven to seventy seven. Democrats now need to win fifty seven of those seventy seven to take the chamber, up from fifty nine of eighty seven.

Fewer competitive districts

Cook Political Report found that fewer than five percent of Americans live in districts that will truly decide House control. Cook projected Republicans gaining roughly eight seats from the redraws, Democrats two.

Latino voters and misinformation

A survey by Marisa Abrajano at UC San Diego found Latinos who got news from Spanish language social media were eleven percentage points more likely to believe political falsehoods than those using English language social…

Latino voters' top concerns

In North Carolina, Latino voters prioritize cost of living including groceries, rent, utilities, and gas. Immigration enforcement comes close behind, but voters hold both worries at once and do not vote as a monolithic bloc.

Young Latino voters in North Carolina

Roughly a third of eligible Latino voters in North Carolina are under twenty five, with median age thirty five compared to forty eight for the state's overall electorate. Many are first generation citizens.

Voting access changes in North Carolina

Wake County replaced the long standing Talley Student Union polling site at NC State with the Business Services Center as part of a record eighteen early voting sites. Mail in ballot rules have also tightened.

Trump's likely path forward

Trump will go down fighting to make Project twenty twenty five reality. No matter what happens in November, his first two years were just the start of his agenda.

“He'll go down fighting to make Project 2025 our reality, and no matter what happens in November, the first two years were just the start.”