From WIRED · Ben Gartside · · 2m
UK's £400bn AI forecast came mainly from Google
The government's flagship economic projection for artificial intelligence was based almost entirely on a single Google-commissioned report, not independent analysis.
In brief
The government's flagship economic projection for artificial intelligence was based almost entirely on a single Google-commissioned report, not independent analysis. UK officials promoted a £400 billion AI economic benefit figure for two years that came solely from a Google-commissioned report, later admitting their…
The £400 billion promise
For two years, UK officials told the public that artificial intelligence could add £400 billion to the economy, a figure meant to counter fears of job losses and economic damage.
The figure came from Google
AI minister Kanishka Narayan admitted the £400 billion estimate came solely from a 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by consultancy Public First, now PF Global.
Government's real estimate was much lower
Narayan said the government's own assessment was £55 billion to £140 billion by 2030, with a central estimate of £120 billion, less than a third of the Google-backed figure.
Even the lower figure is uncertain
Narayan described the £120 billion estimate as a hugely uncertain figure, acknowledging the difficulty of predicting AI's economic impact with confidence.
“hugely uncertain”
Why the numbers differ so much
PF Global's Jonathan Dupont said the disparity partly reflected the government's slower AI adoption assumptions compared to the 2023 model that produced the £400 billion figure.
Government knew for months
Ministers had the lower £120 billion estimate since at least November 2025, almost a year before admitting it, yet Skills England was still publishing the old £400 billion figure four months later.
MPs warn of hype over substance
Dame Chi Onwurah, Labour MP chairing the Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, said overstating technology benefits risks undermining the case for genuine digital transformation.
“overstating the benefits of technology risks undermining the case for change”
Calls for independent research and testing
Sumedha Deshmukh of the Ada Lovelace Institute said government should test figures before building policy on them, fund independent research, and ask who benefits from any AI economic projection.
What matters most
UK officials promoted a £400 billion AI economic benefit figure for two years that came solely from a Google-commissioned report, later admitting their own estimate was £120 billion.
