Wood's billion-dollar Starship bet

Cathie Wood says a single Starship launch could generate $1 billion in Starlink revenue, making the $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO look cheap if the company hits Elon Musk's goal of 10,000 flights yearly by 2030.

“a single Starship launch could generate $1 billion in revenue”

The Starlink revenue math

ARK Invest calculates Starlink generates $19 million yearly per terabit per second of capacity. One Starship carries roughly 61 terabits per second, adding close to $1 billion in recurring revenue per flight.

The $10 trillion annual projection

Multiply $1 billion per flight by 10,000 annual launches and Starship alone would generate $10 trillion yearly. Wood argues this makes the $1.75 trillion IPO price a deep value bargain.

The capacity assumption problem

Wood's math assumes every Starship flight carries Starlink capacity, but Musk has framed the 10,000 flight target against commercial air travel, which earns no connectivity revenue.

Starship has barely launched

Starship has flown only twice since the June IPO, both suborbital. Falcon 9 flew 165 times last year, showing the massive gap between current cadence and Wood's 10,000 annual target.

Stock struggles despite bullish calls

SPCX priced at $135 in June and closed its first session at $161, but has since spent weeks below its IPO price. Wood is not alone in bullish projections, but the company must prove it can execute.