From Yahoo Finance · · 40s
Fed Rate Hold Could Drop Stocks
JPMorgan predicts S&P 500 could fall 1.25% to 1.75% if Fed holds rates steady.
In brief
JPMorgan predicts S&P 500 could fall 1.25% to 1.75% if Fed holds rates steady. Unexpected Fed rate hold may trigger significant stock declines. Originally reported by Yahoo Finance.
Fed Rate Hold Risk
JPMorgan estimates S&P 500 could drop 1.25% to 1.75% if Fed holds rates steady.
Market Pricing Shifts
Polymarket traders show 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike versus 11% for no change.
Inflation Concerns
Warsh's comments on inflation credibility could push 10-year Treasury yields higher.
JPMorgan Scenarios
JPMorgan outlines five possible stock market reactions based on Fed messaging.
Key Timing
Fed releases rate decision at 2 p.m. ET followed by Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m.
What matters most
Unexpected Fed rate hold may trigger significant stock declines.
