Gold opens flat ahead of Fed

Gold futures opened at $4,333 per troy ounce on September 16, 2026, then climbed to $4,389.40 by early morning trading. Prices have stayed in the $4,300 range all week.

Fed rate hike odds climb to 92.5%

The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows a 92.5% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points today. This would be the first increase in three years.

Rate hike odds surged this week

Probability of a rate increase jumped from 69.4% on Friday to 86.5% on Monday, then to 92.5% by Wednesday. Market expectations shifted dramatically in just five days.

Why higher rates hurt gold

Gold and crypto don't pay interest, so they become less attractive when interest rates rise. Investors can earn returns elsewhere without the volatility.

“Higher interest rates are a headwind for precious metals and crypto prices since these investments do not pay interest.”

Gold up 16.5% over one year

Gold has gained 16.5% in the past year but is down 1.5% from one week ago and 1.7% from one month ago. Year-to-date performance was up 95.6% as of January 29.

Physical gold is tangible and accessible

You can buy physical gold as jewelry, bars, or coins at retailers like Costco. It's easy to purchase and doesn't require a brokerage account.

Physical gold avoids storage fees

Holding gold yourself eliminates counterparty risk and storage fees. You avoid the volatility tied to gold mining companies and their business operations.

“You eliminate counterparty risk and storage fees or expense ratios.”

Physical gold has liquidity challenges

Selling physical gold is slower than selling stocks or ETFs. You must find a dealer, pay a markup, and arrange secure storage or insurance.

Gold mining stocks offer liquidity

Large-cap miners like Barrick Gold and Franco-Nevada trade easily with tight bid-ask spreads. Stocks live in your brokerage account with no storage needs.

Mining stocks are more volatile

Gold mining stocks have risen and fallen faster than gold spot prices since 2000. They add another layer of risk and don't function as a medium of exchange.

“Gold investing through gold mining companies adds another layer of risk.”

Gold ETFs track spot prices

ETFs like SPDR Gold Shares and iShares Gold Trust are backed by physical gold and track spot prices. They're easy to trade and less volatile than mining stocks.

ETF fees eat into returns

SPDR Gold Shares charges a 0.40% expense ratio, which costs $4 annually per $1,000 invested. These fees compound over time and reduce your gains.

Gold futures offer leverage and risk

Futures contracts let you control large amounts of gold with small capital, but leverage amplifies both gains and losses. They're best left to professional traders.

“Among gold investing options, gold futures carry the highest risk and are best left to professional traders.”

Choose gold based on your goals

Physical gold suits those wanting tangible assets. Mining stocks and ETFs work for traders. Futures are for experienced investors. Pick based on your timeline and risk tolerance.