# Africa's investment boom will bypass half the continent > As global powers race for minerals and markets, only stable countries will prosper. The rest risk being left further behind. - Title: Africa's investment boom will bypass half the continent - Summary: As global powers race for minerals and markets, only stable countries will prosper. The rest risk being left further behind. Africa attracts record foreign… - Keywords: africa, foreign direct investment, critical minerals, china, united states, gulf states, governance, electrification, african continental free trade area, economic growth, world, politics - Source: Foreign Affairs — https://foreignaffairs.com/africa/two-africas - Author: Jared Cohen - Published: 2026-10-07T08:00:00+00:00 - Read time: 4 min - Topics: africa, foreign direct investment, critical minerals, china, united states, gulf states, governance, electrification, african continental free trade area, economic growth, world, politics ## Trump shifts US from aid to trade Last year, US President Donald Trump told African leaders the United States would be shifting from aid to trade. Washington closed USAID and many allies cut their own aid programs. ## But business interest in Africa is surging Despite humanitarian cuts, international business interest in Africa is growing. The continent has critical minerals, a young workforce, growing consumers, and ports on vital trade routes. ## Half of world's fastest-growing economies are African Competition among China, the United States, Europe, India, and Gulf states is bringing more investors than ever. This year, roughly half of the world's twenty fastest-growing economies are likely to be African. ## But gains won't be distributed evenly Many African countries are too unstable, underdeveloped, or corrupt to attract foreign capital and will stay trapped in stagnation. Countries that attract investment and reform could see tremendous growth. ## Africa remains a small global player Africa makes up about twenty percent of the world's population but accounts for just three percent of GDP and three percent of global trade. Most foreign investment has gone to extracting oil, diamonds, and minerals. ## Southern Africa leads regional growth Southern Africa has good interstate infrastructure and low trade barriers.Twelve countries share a power pool connecting their grids.Botswana and Zambia are set to grow by four point seven and four point three percent this year. ## Southern Africa's customs union coordinates trade The world's oldest running customs union comprises Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho, Namibia, and South Africa. The five countries coordinate trade policy, share customs revenue, and implement a common external tariff. ## Other regions show commercial promise Nigeria gives West Africa huge market scale with its entrepreneurial ecosystem. Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda form an increasingly valuable East African commercial core. Mauritius is an international financial center. ## Africa's young population is a major advantage By twenty forty, national cohorts of people between the ages of fifteen and forty-nine will decrease more or less everywhere outside sub-Saharan Africa. > By 2040, national cohorts of people between the ages of 15 and 49 will decrease more or less everywhere outside sub-Saharan Africa. ## China built near monopoly on critical minerals Sub-Saharan Africa holds thirty percent of known critical mineral reserves. China spent decades building a near monopoly over the critical mineral industry. China's investment over twenty years exceeded three hundred fifty billion dollars. ## US and allies now competing for African minerals Last year, the Trump administration announced deals to secure American access to minerals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda. ## Gulf states emerging as major investors The United Arab Emirates has become Africa's single largest source of new foreign direct investment, committing nearly one hundred ten billion dollars between twenty nineteen and twenty twenty-three, outspending China in some years. ## Investment concentrated in just fifteen countries Over eighty percent of foreign direct investment in Africa is concentrated in just fifteen countries, according to the United Nations. Investors need certainty about whether contracts, regulations, and governments will remain stable. ## Coups and conflict deter investment Military governments in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger between twenty twenty and twenty twenty-three drastically changed their countries' economic landscapes. Since twenty twenty, the continent has seen at least nine successful coups. ## Zambia reforms attract investors, Congo does not Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo both have vast mineral reserves.Zambia's systematic reforms since its twenty twenty debt default have restored stability and drawn renewed investor interest. ## Electricity is the critical missing piece Nearly six hundred million people in sub-Saharan Africa lack access to electricity.No country in the modern era has industrialized without affordable, reliable power. ## Free trade area could unlock continental scale The African Continental Free Trade Area, ratified by fifty of Africa's countries, aims to create one of the world's biggest duty-free zones. ## African leaders hold the key to their future There is unlikely to be a single African economic story. The same forces making the continent more important may widen differences among countries. African leaders have agency over which path their people take. ## Key takeaway Africa attracts record foreign investment for minerals and markets, but gains will concentrate in stable countries with good governance while unstable nations fall further behind.