# Alex Thorn Predicts Bitcoin Low Held After Four Bear Markets

> Galaxy research head Alex Thorn says Bitcoin's $57,718 low held after four of last five bear markets, signaling potential for a steady climb.
- Title: Alex Thorn Predicts Bitcoin Low Held After Four Bear Markets
- Summary: Galaxy research head Alex Thorn says Bitcoin's $57,718 low held after four of last five bear markets, signaling potential for a steady climb. Bitcoin's…
- Keywords: alex thorn, galaxy, bitcoin, 50-week moving average, bear market, crypto, price recovery, bitget, luna, ftx, seattle, Alex
- Source: 24/7 Wall St. — https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/09/21/alex-thorn-says-bitcoins-low-is-in-what-happened-the-last-four-times
- Author: Sam Daodu
- Published: 2026-09-21T14:18:53+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: alex thorn, galaxy, bitcoin, 50-week moving average, bear market, crypto, price recovery, bitget, luna, ftx, seattle
## Thorn's Signal
Alex Thorn, Galaxy's research head, noted Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks, signaling a potential hold at $57,718.

> Bitcoin closed above the 50-week moving average for the first time in 45 weeks.
## Four Historical Cases
In four of the last five bear markets, Bitcoin held its low after reclaiming the 50-week moving average, with the last hold reaching $126,198.

> Bitcoin held its low after reclaiming the 50-week moving average in four of the last five bear markets.
## The Exception
The 2021-2022 period saw Bitcoin cross above the moving average twice but made lower lows due to Luna, Three Arrows, and FTX collapses.

> Bitcoin crossed above the moving average twice but made lower lows due to Luna, Three Arrows, and FTX collapses.
## Current Price Context
Bitcoin is at $84,702, 11% below its January high and 33% below its October 2025 record of $126,198.

> Bitcoin is at 84,702 dollars, 11 percent below its January high and 33 percent below its October 2025 record.
## Buyer Behavior Shift
Today's market has larger but slower-moving buyers compared to past rallies, suggesting a steadier climb rather than a rapid surge.

> Today's market has larger but slower-moving buyers compared to past rallies.
## Key Test Ahead
The weekly close on September 27 will determine if Bitcoin holds above $78,786, signaling a potential move toward the January high of $94,820.

> The weekly close on September 27 will determine if Bitcoin holds above 78,786 dollars.
## Why It Matters
Thorn's signal indicates a solid floor at $57,718, but the speed of the price recovery remains uncertain.

> Thorn's signal indicates a solid floor at 57,718 dollars.
## Historical Comparison
This cycle resembles 2015 and 2018 bear markets, where Bitcoin held lows after reclaiming the moving average.

> This cycle resembles the 2015 and 2018 bear markets.
## The Risk
If Bitcoin closes below $78,786 on September 27, it could trigger a false signal similar to the 2022 downturn.

> If Bitcoin closes below 78,786 dollars on September 27, it could trigger a false signal.
## Key takeaway

Bitcoin's $57,718 low is likely to hold as the first weekly close above the 50-week moving average occurred in four of the last five bear markets.