# Australia needs migration to handle ageing population

> Treasury analysis shows lower migration would weaken living standards and worsen the budget deficit as Australia ages.
- Title: Australia needs migration to handle ageing population
- Summary: Treasury analysis shows lower migration would weaken living standards and worsen the budget deficit as Australia ages. Treasury analysis shows Australia…
- Keywords: australia, migration, ageing population, treasury, intergenerational report, jim chalmers, fertility rate, economy, budget deficit, news, world, needs
- Source: the Guardian — https://theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/sep/21/australia-migration-ageing-population-labor-analysis-ntwnfb
- Published: 2026-09-21T09:35:08+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: australia, migration, ageing population, treasury, intergenerational report, jim chalmers, fertility rate, economy, budget deficit, news, world
## Australia's fertility crisis
Australia's fertility rate is about one point five now and Treasury projects it will drop to one point three four over the coming forty years. The replacement rate is two point one children per woman.
## Deaths will outnumber births
Treasury predicts that by the mid-two thousand sixties deaths will outnumber births for the first time. There is no direct plan to reverse the trend for smaller Australian families.
## Treasurer rejects baby bonus
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Monday he will not give people advice about starting families, ruling out repeating Peter Costello's baby bonus or the former Liberal treasurer's guidance on family size.

> When it comes to fertility rates, I do not and will not give people free advice about these very personal decisions that they make about whether to start a family and when to start a family.
## Migration slows the ageing
Treasury says migration contributes to population growth and slows ageing while supporting a multicultural society and strengthening the economy through skills, innovation and international connections.

> Migration contributes to population growth and slows ageing, while supporting a multicultural society and strengthening the economy through skills, innovation and international connections.
## Lower migration means lower living standards
Treasury's baseline forecast assumes net overseas migration of two hundred thirty five thousand people a year. With lower migration, real GDP per person would be four hundred dollars lower in twenty sixty five to sixty six.
## Budget deficit worsens without migration
With lower migration, the dependency ratio of people aged sixty five and over to working age Australians reaches forty three by the mid-two thousand sixties instead of forty. The projected budget deficit rises to two point four percent instead of one point eight percent.
## Key takeaway

Treasury analysis shows Australia needs sustained migration to offset an ageing population and maintain economic growth, contradicting anti-migration sentiment.