# Bitcoin coils at support before the Fed

> BTC is pinned between $76k support and a $80k ceiling, and Wednesday's FOMC decides which one breaks.
- Title: Bitcoin coils at support before the Fed · TradingView
- Summary: BTC is pinned between $76k support and a $80k ceiling, and Wednesday's FOMC decides which one breaks. The 25bp hike is already priced in, so Warsh's…
- Keywords: bitcoin, fomc, technical analysis, crypto, macro, business, finance, coils, support, Fed, TradingView
- Source: TradingView — https://tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/cBB4FUaC-14-09-26-Weekly-Outlook
- Published: 2026-09-14T07:50:30+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: bitcoin, fomc, technical analysis, crypto, macro, business, finance
## Last week ground lower
BTC slid from a $80,557 high down to a $76,044 weekly low. The midpoint sits at $78,300, and price spent the week working its way down through it.

> Last weeks high: $80,557.00 Last weeks low: $76,044.79
## CPI day was a trap
A spike toward $80k on the CPI print got rejected immediately. Price fell back into the $76,000 to $77,000 support zone and retested it on Sep 13.

> a spike toward $80k that was immediately rejected
## Boxed in and coiled
BTC bounced back above the $77,172 level, or the 0.25 retracement. It is now de-risked at support, capped by $80,000, and roughly boxed between $75,000 and $82,000.

> Price is coiled and de-risked right at support ahead of a FOMC
## Wednesday is the swing factor
The Sept 16 FOMC dominates the week. A 25bp hike to 3.75 to 4.00% is heavily expected, so Warsh's guidance carries the move, with the Sept 15 CLARITY Act vote alongside it.

> Warsh's guidance is the real swing factor
## Bull case: ETF demand holds
ETFs pulled in about $987M last week even through the drop. If BTC defends $76.5k to $77k and guidance comes in soft, a squeeze through $80,000 opens $83,000.

> durable ETF demand at ~$987M last week despite the drop
## Bear case: sticky inflation
PPI at 5.4% and CPI at 3.4% pushed hike odds to roughly 88%. Hawkish guidance breaks the weekly low toward $72,327, and a rejection at the midpoint is the trigger.

> even a priced-in hike has marked bearish pivots this year
## Key takeaway

The 25bp hike is already priced in, so Warsh's guidance, not the decision itself, is what moves BTC out of the $75k to $82k box.