# Bitcoin's make-or-break quarter ends in 11 days > Bitcoin has surged 39% this quarter and needs to hold above June 30 levels to avoid historic losing streak. - Title: Bitcoin's make-or-break quarter ends in 11 days | Shortify - Summary: Bitcoin has surged 39% this quarter and needs to hold above June 30 levels to avoid historic losing streak. Bitcoin needs to close above $58,524 on September… - Keywords: bitcoin, cryptocurrency, quarterly performance, price volatility, stock market correlation, crypto trading, market risk, losing streak, september 2026, btc price, Bitcoin's, make-or-break - Source: 24/7 Wall St. — https://247wallst.com/investing/cryptocurrency/2026/09/19/bitcoin-is-11-days-from-its-first-winning-quarter-in-a-year-what-needs-to-hold-until-september-30 - Author: Sam Daodu - Published: 2026-09-20T00:42:33+00:00 - Read time: 2 min - Topics: bitcoin, cryptocurrency, quarterly performance, price volatility, stock market correlation, crypto trading, market risk, losing streak, september 2026, btc price ## Bitcoin up 39% with 11 days left Bitcoin closed June 30 at $58,524 and has surged to $81,214 as of September 19, marking a 39% quarterly gain. It needs to stay above $58,524 on September 30 to secure its first winning quarter in a year. > Bitcoin ( CRYPTO:BTC ) closed the second quarter of 2026 at $58,524 on June 30 and has since surged to $81,214 as of September 19, marking a remarkable 39% increase. ## Three quarters of losses before this Bitcoin peaked at $126,198 on October 6, 2025, then trended downward for three consecutive quarters. A green close on September 30 would break this losing streak. > The last instance of Bitcoin finishing a quarter with a positive return was in Q3 of 2025. ## Still down 7% for the full year Despite the quarterly surge, Bitcoin remains down 7.18% from its $87,498 close on December 31, 2025. Even a green quarter won't fix the year's overall losses. > Despite its recent gains, Bitcoin remains in negative territory overall for the year, down 7.18% from its $87,498 close on December 31, 2025. ## August rally drove most gains Bitcoin surged 13% over two days in mid-August, reaching $78,326 on August 21 amid high trading volumes. By August 28, it hit $81,480, establishing the 39% quarterly gain it has maintained since. > Bitcoin surged to $69,300 on August 19, climbed to $73,012 on August 20, and peaked at $78,326 on August 21, posting a remarkable 13% gain over just two sessions. ## September pullback then recovery Bitcoin dipped to $74,888 on September 15 but rebounded above $80,000 by September 18. It has risen 5.11% over the past week and 11.23% over the past month. > After hitting a monthly low of $74,888 on September 15, it rebounded and soared back above $80,000 by September 18. ## 28% crash needed to go red For Bitcoin to finish red, it would need to plunge from $81,214 to below $58,524 in 11 days, a 28% drop. This has only happened once this year, over 16 days in January-February. > For Bitcoin to finish this quarter in the red, the price needs to plunge from $81,214 to below $58,524 by the close on September 30, a drop of about 28%. ## Stock market volatility is main threat Bitcoin often moves with broader market trends during sell-offs. The VIX closed at 15.44 on September 17, well below the normal 20 threshold, suggesting low market stress currently. > The Bitcoin price often moves in tandem with broader market trends, particularly during sell-off events. ## Crypto-specific risks also loom A major exchange failure, forced liquidations, or severe U.S. regulatory actions could each trigger significant Bitcoin price drops. These risks are inherently unpredictable. > Scenarios like a major exchange failure, forced liquidations due to collapsing collateral values, or severe U.S. regulatory actions could each trigger significant price drops. ## Green close likely but not certain The gap between current price and June 30 close is wider than any 11-day move Bitcoin has made this year. With the VIX at 15.44, major market stress seems unlikely, making a green quarter probable. > We believe it is highly probable, barring any significant shocks to the stock market that could dwarf the March volatility, that Bitcoin will close above its June 30 closing price before September 30. ## Historic losing streak at stake Bitcoin has never recorded four consecutive losing quarters in its history. A close below $58,524 on September 30 would put Bitcoin in uncharted territory. > Bitcoin has never recorded four consecutive losing quarters in its history, so a close below $58,524 on September 30 could position Bitcoin in uncharted territory. ## Key takeaway Bitcoin needs to close above $58,524 on September 30 to secure its first winning quarter in a year, but a 28% crash in 11 days could push it into uncharted territory.