# Bolsonaro Lead Nears Tie as Trump Stays Quiet

> Bolsonaro and Lula's Brazil election lead shrinks to a statistical tie as Trump avoids endorsing either candidate.
- Title: Bolsonaro Lead Nears Tie as Trump Stays Quiet · Newsweek
- Summary: Bolsonaro and Lula's Brazil election lead shrinks to a statistical tie as Trump avoids endorsing either candidate. Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil's first…
- Keywords: brazil, presidential election, flavio bolsonaro, luiz inacio lula da silva, trump, election runoff, donroe doctrine, Bolsonaro, Lead, Nears, Tie, Stays
- Source: Newsweek — https://newsweek.com/bolsonaro-lead-over-lula-shrinks-as-trump-stays-on-brazil-election-sideline-12613289
- Published: 2026-10-24T09:00:00+00:00
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: brazil, presidential election, flavio bolsonaro, luiz inacio lula da silva, trump, election runoff, donroe doctrine
## Brazilian Election Results
Senator Flávio Bolsonaro's lead over President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has narrowed to a statistical tie ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff in Brazil.
## Datafolha Poll Shows Tie
A Datafolha poll released Thursday showed the two candidates tied at 50 percent of valid votes, down from a 52-48 Bolsonaro advantage two weeks earlier.
## Bolsonaro's First Round Vote
Bolsonaro finished first in the October 4 first round with 47.03 percent to Lula's 45.16 percent.
## Trump's Strategic Silence
Trump has stayed quiet on the race despite weighing in heavily on other recent elections in Latin America.
## Trump's Past Involvement
Flávio Bolsonaro met Trump in the Oval Office in May, then Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
## Trump's Strategic Choice
Trump's relative silence on this race probably pleases the Bolsonaro campaign, making it harder for Lula to use foreign intervention as a political advantage.
## Analyst Perspective
Michael Shifter, a senior fellow and former president of the Inter-American Dialogue, said Trump's support would have been an electoral gift to Lula.
## Bolsonaro's Campaign Strategy
Bolsonaro urged Washington to designate Brazil's two largest criminal organizations as terrorist groups, and the administration announced days later that it would.
## U.S. Pressure on Brazil
The Trump administration imposed 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian goods in 2025, citing the prosecution of Jair Bolsonaro.
## Bolsonaro's Age Advantage
Lula, who turns 81 on Tuesday, may benefit from his energy and passion in the runoff debate.
## Meta's Role in Campaign
Lula's campaign accused Meta of tilting its platforms toward Bolsonaro after Brazilian news outlets found Meta AI generated campaign images of Bolsonaro.
## Donroe Doctrine Impact
A Bolsonaro victory would give Trump an aligned government in Latin America's largest country, the biggest prize yet for the 'Donroe Doctrine'.
## Election Outcome Risks
A narrow Lula victory could trigger false fraud claims from Bolsonaro, who has a history of election denialism.
## Next Steps
Bolsonaro and Lula will face a runoff vote on Sunday, with the outcome likely to shape U.S.-Brazil relations for years.
## Key takeaway

Bolsonaro and Lula tied in Brazil's first round vote, with Trump's silence on the race benefiting Bolsonaro's campaign.