# Brazil Diesel Aid Ends 26 October

> Brazil's diesel subsidy expires Monday as oil prices rise.
- Title: Brazil Diesel Aid Ends 26 October · The Rio Times | Shortify
- Summary: Brazil's diesel subsidy expires Monday as oil prices rise. Brazil's federal diesel subsidy ends 26 October, risking higher fuel costs for freight and…
- Keywords: brazil, diesel, subsidy, petrobras, finance ministry, oil prices, brent crude, lula, bolsonaro, presidential runoff, news, world
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-diesel-subsidy-lapses-26-october-oil-117-2026
- Author: Lucía Martínez
- Published: 2026-10-26T08:18:52+00:00
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: brazil, diesel, subsidy, petrobras, finance ministry, oil prices, brent crude, lula, bolsonaro, presidential runoff, news, world
## Brazil Diesel Aid Ends
Brazil's federal subsidy of 2.12 reais a liter (about US$0.42) on road diesel expires Monday, 26 October.
## Why It Matters
Ending the aid could push up freight and bus costs across Latin America's largest economy as Brent crude nears US$117.
## Current Price Gap
Petrobras' refinery diesel sits 3.53 reais (about US$0.71) below import cost after Thursday's close, a 108% gap.
## Import Support
Imported diesel gets 3.52 reais a liter (about US$0.70) under Ordinance 3,082 of 13 October, a 30-day top-up.
## Government Action
The Finance Ministry set the aid in Ordinance 2,946 of 25 September, with a 30-day term renewable for an equal period.
## Election Context
Brazil's presidential runoff occurs on 25 October, with Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula competing for the presidency.
## Prediction Markets
Polymarket shows 51% chance of US crude (WTI) hitting US$105 by 26 October and 16.5% for US$110.
## Price Impact
A lapse could force Petrobras to raise prices, risking a break in its 2026 pricing policy.
## Government Signals
Finance Minister Dario Durigan said fuel subsidies could continue in 2027 if oil prices remain high and Treasury revenue increases.
## Import Uncertainty
Private importers are cautious due to subsidy uncertainty, with potential Russian diesel arrivals.
## What Comes Next
The 30-day subsidy term ends Monday, 26 October, with no renewal announced by early Monday.
## Price Gap Risk
A larger price gap could push Petrobras to break its 2026 pricing policy, as seen in Goldman Sachs reports.
## Election Outcome
The presidential runoff results will influence whether the government renews the subsidy or adjusts prices.
## Market Reaction
Brazil's stock market dropped 16.27% as diesel price uncertainty affected investor confidence.
## What It Means
Holders of US-listed Petrobras shares and inflation trackers should monitor subsidy renewal decisions.
## Next Steps
The Finance Ministry must decide by 26 October whether to renew the subsidy or let it lapse.
## Key takeaway

Brazil's federal diesel subsidy ends 26 October, risking higher fuel costs for freight and transport after oil prices hit $117.