# Brazil Election Poll Shows Flávio 50.8%, Lula 49.2%

> Brazil's runoff election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied with 1.6-point gap inside margin of error.
- Title: Brazil Election Poll Shows Flávio 50.8%, Lula 49.2% | Shortify
- Summary: Brazil's runoff election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied with 1.6-point gap inside margin of error. Brazil's runoff election poll shows Flávio…
- Keywords: brazil, elections, flávio bolsonaro, lula, runoff, poll, instituto frança, tse, news, world, politics, Election
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/instituto-franca-poll-flavio-50-8-lula-49-2-runoff-2026
- Author: Rafael Silva Santos
- Published: 2026-10-20T21:21:03+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: brazil, elections, flávio bolsonaro, lula, runoff, poll, instituto frança, tse, news, world, politics
## Brazil Election Poll Results
Instituto França released a runoff poll showing Flávio Bolsonaro with 50.8% valid votes and Lula 49.2%.
## Valid Vote Split
The 1.6-point gap sits inside the 1.8-point margin of error, making it a technical tie.
## Raw Vote Totals
Flávio Bolsonaro has 40.95% and Lula 39.65% in raw totals, with 10.56% blank or null votes.
## Poll Methodology
Instituto França interviewed 3,000 voters nationwide from 16 to 20 October at 95% confidence level.
## Margin of Error
The poll has a 1.8-point margin of error at 95% confidence level, with a 1.6-point gap inside it.
## Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78.2% chance of winning the runoff, with Lula at 21.5%.
## Runoff Date
Brazil's presidential runoff election occurs on Sunday 25 October, five days after the poll.
## Technical Tie Meaning
A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample of this size.
## Why This Matters
The result affects Brazilian stocks, the real, and trade with Washington for the next four years.
## What's Next
The winner will take office as president for a four-year term starting 25 October.
## Key takeaway

Brazil's runoff election poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied with 1.6-point gap inside margin of error.