# Brazil Election Poll Shows Flávio 51.2%, Lula 48.8%

> Brazil's runoff election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 2.4 points, inside margin of error.
- Title: Brazil Election Poll Shows Flávio 51.2%, Lula 48.8% | Shortify
- Summary: Brazil's runoff election poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 2.4 points, inside margin of error. Brazil's Ipespe poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with…
- Keywords: brasil, elections, flávio bolsonaro, lula, ipespe, abrapel, runoff, polls, brazil 2026, news, world, politics
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/ipespe-abrapel-poll-flavio-51-lula-49-runoff-2026
- Author: Iolanda Fonseca
- Published: 2026-10-17T15:06:41+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: brasil, elections, flávio bolsonaro, lula, ipespe, abrapel, runoff, polls, brazil 2026, news, world, politics
## Brazil Election Poll Results
Ipespe's latest poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.2% valid votes against Lula's 48.8% in Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff.
## Poll Margin of Error
The 2.4-point gap sits within a 2.6-point margin of error, making the result a technical tie.
## Previous Poll Comparison
The previous Ipespe survey on 10 October showed Flávio at 52.7% and Lula at 47.3%, a 5.4-point gap.
## Fieldwork Details
Ipespe interviewed 1,500 voters nationwide from 13 to 15 October under electoral court registration BR-00223/2026.
## Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio a 76.4% chance of winning the runoff, with Kalshi at 79%.
## Runoff Date
Brazil's presidential runoff occurs on Sunday 25 October 2026, eight days after this poll.
## What's Next
The next round of surveys will show if the narrowing continues before the 25 October vote.
## Technical Tie Explanation
A 2.4-point gap within the 2.6-point margin of error means neither candidate is a certain winner.
## Economic Impact
The winner will set Brazil's course with Washington for the next four years, affecting trade and stocks.
## What's Unknown
The raw totals including blank and undecided voters are not yet confirmed by Ipespe.
## Runoff Significance
The runoff decides who runs Latin America's largest economy, impacting Brazilian stocks and trade with Washington.
## Key takeaway

Brazil's Ipespe poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro with 51.2% valid votes versus Lula's 48.8% in the 2026 presidential runoff.