# Brazil Election Runoff Poll Shows Technical Tie

> Brazil's presidential runoff election shows Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied 50-49% in final Palver poll.
- Title: Brazil Election Runoff Poll Shows Technical Tie | Shortify
- Summary: Brazil's presidential runoff election shows Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied 50-49% in final Palver poll. brazil, election, runoff · reported by The Rio Times.
- Keywords: brazil, election, runoff, palver, flavio bolsonaro, lula, presidential, polling, news, world, politics, Poll
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/palver-poll-flavio-50-lula-49-runoff-eve-2026
- Author: Rafael Silva Santos
- Published: 2026-10-25T00:04:21+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: brazil, election, runoff, palver, flavio bolsonaro, lula, presidential, polling, news, world, politics
## Final Palver Poll Results
Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 50% to 49% in Palver's last runoff survey before Brazil's election 2026.

> Flávio Bolsonaro has 50% and President Lula 49%, with 1% blank, null or staying home and 0% undecided
## Polling Methodology
Palver interviewed 5,000 voters online from 22 to 24 October with a 2.2 point margin of error.

> Palver interviewed 5,000 voters aged 16 or older across Brazil from 22 to 24 October
## Previous Poll Comparison
Lula gained one point from 48% to 49% in three days, within Palver's margin of error.

> Palver’s previous poll had Flávio at 50% and Lula at 48%, so Lula gained one point
## Rejection Rates
49% of voters reject Lula while 47% reject Flávio in Palver's survey.

> Palver found that 49% of voters reject Lula and 47% reject Flávio
## Technical Tie
The one-point gap is a technical tie within Palver's 2.2 point margin of error.

> The one-point gap is a technical tie
## Gerp Poll Results
Gerp poll shows Flávio at 52% and Lula at 48% with a 2 point margin of error.

> Gerp institute, which polled 2,400 voters by phone from 22 to 24 October, gave Flávio 52% of valid votes and Lula 48%
## Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio 84% chance of winning runoff while Kalshi shows Lula 99.6%.

> Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 84% chance of winning the runoff (24 October, 8:01 p.m. ET)
## What It Means for Investors
Brazilian stocks and US-listed shares could see sharp price swings after election results.

> If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can mean sharp price swings
## Voting Date
Brazil's presidential runoff election occurs on Sunday 25 October, 2026.

> Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, the day after this poll was published
## What Is Not Known
No poll can predict how undecided voters will vote on election day.

> No poll can say how many of the voters who say they are undecided or may stay home will vote on Sunday
## Key takeaway

Brazil's presidential runoff election shows Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied 50-49% in final Palver poll.