# Brazil Inflation Forecast Stays at 5.22%

> Brazil's inflation forecast for 2026 remains at 5.22% in central bank survey.
- Title: Brazil Inflation Forecast Stays at 5.22% · The Rio Times
- Summary: Brazil's inflation forecast for 2026 remains at 5.22% in central bank survey. Economists expect Brazil's inflation to end 2026 at 5.22%, 0.72 percentage…
- Keywords: brazil, inflation, selic, central bank, focus survey, 2026, dollar, gdp growth, news, world, politics, Forecast
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-inflation-forecast-holds-at-5-22-percent-focus-survey-2026
- Author: Iolanda Fonseca
- Published: 2026-10-19T12:01:07+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: brazil, inflation, selic, central bank, focus survey, 2026, dollar, gdp growth, news, world, politics
## Inflation Forecast Unchanged
Economists kept their 2026 inflation forecast at 5.22% in the weekly Focus survey published Monday, 19 October 2026.
## Forecast Changes
The 2026 growth forecast slipped from 1.85% to 1.83%, while the 2027 inflation forecast edged up from 4.30% to 4.32%.
## Market Expectations
Economists see the dollar at R$5.13 at the end of 2026, down from R$5.15 a week ago, and the Selic interest rate at 13.25%.
## Prediction Markets
Polymarket predicts Brazil's 2026 inflation in the 5.00% to 5.49% range at 73.1% probability, 19 October 2026.
## Current Inflation Rate
Brazil's inflation measured by IPCA rose 0.82% in September and reached 4.58% over 12 months, above the 4.5% ceiling.
## What's Next
The next inflation reading arrives on 23 October, and the presidential runoff on 25 October could affect the real and central bank plans.
## Impact on US Investors
High Selic rates keep Brazilian bonds attractive to dollar investors but raise borrowing costs for US-listed companies like Petrobras and Vale.
## Central Bank Target
The central bank targets 3% inflation with a tolerance range of 1.5 percentage points, making 4.5% the ceiling for inflation.
## What Comes Next
Friday 23 October: IBGE publishes mid-month inflation index; Sunday 25 October: presidential runoff election.
## Key takeaway

Economists expect Brazil's inflation to end 2026 at 5.22%, 0.72 percentage points above the official target ceiling.