# Brazil Polls Miss Right-Wing Surge

> Brazilian right-wing candidates outpace polls in election surprise.
- Title: Brazil Polls Miss Right-Wing Surge · Buenos Aires Times
- Summary: Brazilian right-wing candidates outpace polls in election surprise. Flávio Bolsonaro edges Lula in Brazil's first-round election with 47% support despite…
- Keywords: flavio bolsonaro, lula, brazil, polls, election, right-wing, brazilian politics, news, politics, world, Miss, Surge
- Source: Buenos Aires Times — https://batimes.com.ar/news/latin-america/why-polls-keep-getting-it-wrong-on-brazils-right.phtml
- Author: Facundo Fernández Barrio, AFP
- Published: 2026-10-06T15:06:14+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: flavio bolsonaro, lula, brazil, polls, election, right-wing, brazilian politics, news, politics, world
## Brazilian Polls Miss Right-Wing Surge
Brazilian pollsters missed the mark in Sunday's first-round election, joining global struggles to gauge right-wing voter support.
## Bolsonaro Edges Lula in Vote
Right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro secured nearly 47 percent of the vote compared to Lula's 45 percent in Sunday's election.
## Polling Error in Brazil
The Datafolha pollster showed Lula three percentage points ahead while Quaest showed a one-point lead for Lula.
## Shy Vote Phenomenon
Voters who dislike other options may not disclose their choice to pollsters, creating the 'shy vote' phenomenon.
## Strategic Voting Boosts Right
Some voters switched support to leading candidates like Bolsonaro to make their vote count, despite third-party candidates gaining only eight percent.
## Right-Wing Surge Ahead
Bolsonaro's campaign manager stated the Brazilian right performed three to four percent better than polls predicted in the last four elections.
## Key takeaway

Flávio Bolsonaro edges Lula in Brazil's first-round election with 47% support despite polls showing Lula ahead by 3 percentage points.