# Brazil Rate Pause Odds Jump to 67%

> US traders now bet Brazil's central bank will pause rate cuts in 2026 after Lula's re-election.
- Title: Brazil Rate Pause Odds Jump to 67% · The Rio Times | Shortify
- Summary: US traders now bet Brazil's central bank will pause rate cuts in 2026 after Lula's re-election. Prediction markets show 67% chance Brazil's central bank will…
- Keywords: brazil, central bank, interest rates, prediction markets, kalshi, selic, copom, lula, bolsonaro, election, news, world
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-rate-pause-odds-prediction-market
- Author: Richard Mann
- Published: 2026-10-26T09:32:43+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: brazil, central bank, interest rates, prediction markets, kalshi, selic, copom, lula, bolsonaro, election, news, world
## Prediction Markets Update
US-regulated traders now bet Brazil’s central bank has finished cutting interest rates this year.
## Kalshi Odds Jump
Kalshi prices exactly 5 Brazil rate cuts in 2026 at 67%, up 57 points in 24 hours.
## Election Result
President Lula won 51.79% of valid votes against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro.
## Next Rate Decision
Brazil’s rate-setting committee meets on 4 November to decide on interest rates.
## Current Rate
Brazil’s benchmark Selic rate is 13.75% a year with a pause expected into 2027.
## Economist View
Economist Bruno Corano expects a pause after Lula’s runoff win due to weaker real and inflation.
## Market Thin
Only 20,800 contracts traded in 24 hours, making the market thinly traded.
## Why Odds Moved
No single trigger reported; traders have not said what drove the price change.
## What It Means
A pause would keep borrowing costs high for Brazilian companies with debt.
## What Is Unknown
It is not known why the price moved so far or whether Copom will cut on 4 November.
## Event Date
Brazil’s central bank meets on 4 November to decide on interest rates.
## Key takeaway

Prediction markets show 67% chance Brazil's central bank will pause interest rate cuts in 2026 following President Lula's re-election.