# Brazil Runoff Poll Shows Flávio 1 Point Up

> Brazil's presidential runoff poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula by one point as election approaches Sunday.
- Title: Brazil Runoff Poll Shows Flávio 1 Point Up · The Rio Times
- Summary: Brazil's presidential runoff poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula by one point as election approaches Sunday. Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by one point in…
- Keywords: brazil, flávio bolsonaro, lula, presidential runoff, election polls, quaeest poll, brazil election 2026, news, world, politics, Runoff, Poll
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/quaest-poll-flavio-45-lula-44-runoff-2026
- Author: Andrés Morales
- Published: 2026-10-21T14:05:52+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: brazil, flávio bolsonaro, lula, presidential runoff, election polls, quaeest poll, brazil election 2026, news, world, politics
## Brazil Runoff Poll
A new Quaest poll for Globo shows Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% and President Lula at 44% for Brazil's election 2026 runoff.
## Valid Vote Split
On valid votes, Flávio leads 50.6% to Lula's 49.4%, a technical tie with a one-point margin.
## Margin of Error
The poll has a 2-point margin of error at 95% confidence, so neither candidate is a sure winner.
## Previous Poll
A week earlier, Flávio led 46% to Lula's 44%, so his lead shrank from two points to one.
## Poll Methodology
Quaest interviewed 2,154 voters aged 16 or older from 17 to 20 October with registration BR-08535/2026.
## Approval Rates
46% of Brazilians approve of Lula's government, up one point from 45% a week earlier.
## Rejection Rates
47% of voters reject Lula, while 52% reject Flávio Bolsonaro, according to Agenda do Poder.
## Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio a 78.8% chance of winning and Lula 21.5% as of 21 October, 10:05 a.m. ET.
## Election Date
Brazil's presidential runoff occurs on Sunday, 25 October 2026, with Flávio and Lula qualifying after the first round on 4 October.
## Market Impact
A tight race can keep Brazilian stock prices swinging until the election count ends on Sunday.
## Next Polls
Datafolha plans a new poll on Thursday 22 October, and both institutes will publish final surveys on Saturday 24 October.
## Key takeaway

Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by one point in Brazil's runoff poll with 45% to 44% support, a technical tie on valid votes.