# Brazil's Real Gains on Tight Runoff Polls

> Brazil's real strengthens as runoff polls show close race between Bolsonaro and Lula.
- Title: Brazil's Real Gains on Tight Runoff Polls · The Rio Times
- Summary: Brazil's real strengthens as runoff polls show close race between Bolsonaro and Lula. Brazil's real rose against the dollar after two polls showed Flávio…
- Keywords: brazil, real, dollar, runoff, flávio bolsonaro, lula, election, polls, central bank, bolsenaro, lula da silva, brazilian real
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/brazil-real-gains-runoff-polls-dollar-2026
- Author: Arkady Petrov
- Published: 2026-10-19T12:47:06+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: brazil, real, dollar, runoff, flávio bolsonaro, lula, election, polls, central bank, bolsenaro, lula da silva, brazilian real
## Real Gains
The Brazilian real strengthened against the US dollar on Monday morning, with the dollar quoted at R$5.046 per dollar at 8:08 am ET, down 0.54%.
## Runoff Polls
Two new polls from BTG/Nexus and AtlasIntel showed a tight race for president on 25 October, with Flávio Bolsonaro still ahead in both.
## Market Expectation
Economists in the central bank's weekly Focus survey trimmed their year-end dollar forecast to R$5.13 from R$5.15 and edged 2026 growth down to 1.83%.
## Prediction Markets
Polymarket prices a Flávio Bolsonaro win at 77.0% and a Lula win at 23.5%, with US$188 million traded on the election event.
## What's Unknown
It is not known whether the real keeps its gain through the runoff on Sunday, 25 October.
## Why Real Gains Matter
A stronger real raises the dollar value of Brazilian assets, helping US holders of Brazil funds and shares like Petrobras, Vale, Itaú and Nu Holdings.
## Dollar Rate Today
RT data showed R$5.0485 per US dollar at 8:43 am ET on Monday, 19 October 2:000.
## Election Timeline
The runoff election between Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula takes place on Sunday, 25 October 2026.
## Economists' Forecast
The central bank's Focus survey expects 2026 inflation of 5.22% and a Selic rate of 13.25%.
## Key takeaway

Brazil's real rose against the dollar after two polls showed Flávio Bolsonaro leading Lula in the October 25 runoff election.