# Burnham warned Budget cuts loom without tax rises

> The Institute for Fiscal Studies says inflation will force the new chancellor to choose between large public service cuts, tax rises of £35bn, or spending increases of £25bn.
- Title: Burnham warned Budget cuts loom without tax rises | Shortify
- Summary: The Institute for Fiscal Studies says inflation will force the new chancellor to choose between large public service cuts, tax rises of £35bn, or spending…
- Keywords: john healey, andy burnham, institute for fiscal studies, budget, public spending, inflation, defence spending, tax rises, politics, news, Burnham, warned
- Source: The Independent — https://independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/budget-inflation-ifs-chancellor-john-healey-b3064829.html
- Published: 2026-10-11T23:09:59+00:00
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: john healey, andy burnham, institute for fiscal studies, budget, public spending, inflation, defence spending, tax rises, politics, news
## Economists warn against steady Budget
Leading economists have warned Andy Burnham against a steady-as-she-goes Budget, saying it would lead to chunky cuts to public services because of inflation.
## Defence spending makes problem worse
The Institute for Fiscal Studies found the problem would be exacerbated if defence spending rises as ministers want, creating pressure on other department budgets.
## Inflation erodes government department budgets
Inflation will erode the budgets of government departments, creating the need for injections of potentially tens of billions of pounds or large cuts to some public services.
## IFS director: steady course not an option
Helen Miller, director of the IFS, said a steady-as-she-goes Budget is not an option available to the chancellor because inflation would blow departments' spending plans off course.

> a 'steady-as-she-goes' Budget is not an option available to the chancellor.
## Three paths forward for the chancellor
Avoiding cuts to departments' budgets could require a combined top-up of around £25bn in 2030-31, while increasing spending to avoid cuts and fund higher defence spending could require tax rises or benefit cuts of around…
## Miller warns against implicit cuts
Helen Miller warned the chancellor should be transparent about tough years ahead if he chooses to squeeze public spending, saying simply pencilling in implicit cuts would make the Budget a work of fiction.

> Simply pencilling in implicit cuts that he has no intention of delivering would make the Budget a work of fiction.
## Healey to discuss borrowing at IMF meetings
John Healey is set to visit Bangkok for the IMF annual meetings this week, where he will tell international counterparts that major economies need credible plans to get borrowing under control.
## Healey promises fiscal discipline in Budget
Healey said his Budget will build on fiscal discipline to deliver economic resilience, providing breathing space for today and hope for the future amid global economic pressures.

> My Budget will build on this approach with fiscal discipline helping to deliver economic resilience.
## Key takeaway

Economists warn Chancellor John Healey cannot maintain current spending plans because inflation will erode department budgets, forcing him to choose between cuts, tax rises or increased borrowing.