# Can Democrats flip the Senate? What the data shows

> Prediction markets and forecasters now give Democrats the edge, but the outcome hinges on six toss-up races.
- Title: Can Democrats flip the Senate? What the data shows · Newsweek
- Summary: Prediction markets and forecasters now give Democrats the edge, but the outcome hinges on six toss-up races. Democrats need to win four of six…
- Keywords: democrats, republicans, senate, 2026 midterms, kalshi, polymarket, nate silver, cook political report, emerson college polling, prediction markets, alaska, iowa
- Source: Newsweek — https://newsweek.com/democrats-flip-senate-data-shows-12446769
- Published: 2026-09-16T09:00:00+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: democrats, republicans, senate, 2026 midterms, kalshi, polymarket, nate silver, cook political report, emerson college polling, prediction markets, alaska, iowa
## Democrats take the lead
Prediction markets now favor Democrats to control the Senate after November's midterms. Kalshi shows them at 53 percent, their first lead since April.
## Forecasters shift toward blue
Nate Silver's forecast gives Democrats a 58.6 percent probability of controlling the chamber, up from 50.6 percent on September 6.
## The math Democrats face
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate.
## Generic ballot shows strength
Emerson polling found Democratic candidates leading 51 percent to 43 percent in August. The advantage narrowed from 11 points in July to eight points.
## Six races decide everything
Cook Political Report rates six Senate contests as toss-ups. Five are Republican-held seats and one is Democratic-held.
## The battleground states
The five Republican-held toss-ups are Alaska, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Texas. Democrats must win four of these six competitive races for a majority.
## Markets moved dramatically
Republicans held over 80 percent odds when Kalshi's market opened in November 2024. Democrats crossed ahead on September 14, 2026.
## What happens next
Late polling, candidate debates and turnout operations will determine whether Democrats' narrow edge survives to November 3.

> The prediction market crossover is best understood as a change in expectations, not an election call.
## Key takeaway

Democrats need to win four of six Republican-held toss-up races to control the Senate, making November's outcome highly uncertain despite improving odds.