# CoreWeave Default Odds Hit 60 Percent

> CoreWeave's credit default swap spread hits 1,000 basis points, pricing a 60% chance of default within five years.
- Title: CoreWeave Default Odds Hit 60 Percent · Startup Fortune
- Summary: CoreWeave's credit default swap spread hits 1,000 basis points, pricing a 60% chance of default within five years. CoreWeave's five-year credit default swap…
- Keywords: coreweave, credit default swap, five year spread, 1000 basis points, default odds, ai cloud company, debt default risk, startups, business, Default, Odds, Hit
- Source: Startup Fortune — https://startupfortune.com/coreweave-default-odds-hit-60-percent-as-credit-swaps-top-1000-basis-points
- Published: 2026-10-15T14:20:28+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: coreweave, credit default swap, five year spread, 1000 basis points, default odds, ai cloud company, debt default risk, startups, business
## Credit Default Swap Spread
CoreWeave's five-year credit-default-swap spread blew past 1,000 basis points on Wednesday.
## Default Probability Calculation
Traders price a 60% chance of default within five years using the spread.
## Spread Acceleration
Spreads doubled in nine days from 368 basis points to 1,118 basis points.
## Market Reaction
CoreWeave shares and bonds slid as yields on five-year notes climbed toward 15% to 16%.
## Credit Swap Mechanics
At 1,000 basis points, insurance costs over $1 million to protect $10 million of exposure.
## CoreWeave's Debt Situation
Total debt stood at $35 billion at end of June, up from $21 billion at start of year.
## CEO's Counterargument
CEO Michael Intrator claims no major debt maturities until 2028 and strong revenue backlog.
## Broader Market Impact
JPMorgan and Mitsubishi UFJ face similar risks with Oracle-linked data center loans.
## Key takeaway

CoreWeave's five-year credit default swap spread now exceeds 1,000 basis points, indicating a 60% probability of default within five years.