# Cuba-US Tensions Explained

> US economic pressure and murder charges target Cuba's leadership amid stalled talks.
- Title: Cuba-US Tensions Explained · The Rio Times | Shortify
- Summary: US economic pressure and murder charges target Cuba's leadership amid stalled talks. The US is using sanctions, criminal cases and threats of force to push…
- Keywords: cuba, united states, sanctions, raul castro, miguel diaz-canel, marco rubio, us strike, prediction markets, embargo, cuban government, news, world
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/cuba-united-states-tensions-explained-2026
- Author: Contributing Reporter
- Published: 2026-10-21T14:09:36+00:00
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: cuba, united states, sanctions, raul castro, miguel diaz-canel, marco rubio, us strike, prediction markets, embargo, cuban government, news, world
## What's Happening
Washington is squeezing Cuba's oil supplies, sanctioning its president and pursuing murder charges against former leader Raúl Castro over a 1996 shootdown.

> The United States is using economic pressure, criminal cases and the threat of force to push Cuba's communist government towards change.
## Key Facts
Since January 2026, Washington has choked Cuba's fuel imports and sanctioned its president and military-run firms.
## The Charges
Raúl Castro, 95, faces federal and Florida charges over the 1996 downing of two planes.
## Force Status
No US attack has taken place; Trump said in September he expects a deal instead.
## Travel Restrictions
Tourism stays banned for Americans, and group 'people-to-people' tours ended on 30 September.
## Next Steps
The UN General Assembly votes on its yearly resolution against the US embargo in late October.
## Prediction Markets
US strike on Cuban soil by 31 December: 8.5% (Polymarket, 21 October, 10:11 a.m. ET).
## Power Index
Cuba ranks 14th of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index with 22.5 points (October 2026 edition).
## How the Squeeze Began
US forces captured Venezuela's leader Nicolás Maduro on 3 January 2026, a long-standing ally of Havana.
## Sanctions Timeline
Trump signed Executive Order 14380 on 29 January 2026, declaring a national emergency over Cuba and threatening oil suppliers with tariffs.
## The Charges Explained
On 24 February 1996 Cuban fighter jets shot down two small civilian planes flown by Brothers to the Rescue, killing four men.
## US Charges Against Castro
On 20 May 2026 the Justice Department unsealed an indictment charging Castro with conspiracy to kill US nationals and four counts of murder.
## Florida's Action
Florida added its own case on 19 October, when Attorney General James Uthmeier announced a state arrest warrant for Castro.
## Havana's Response
Díaz-Canel called the Florida warrant a 'pathetic Miami circus' with an electoral motive, and Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez called it a 'sterile manoeuvre'.
## Will the US Attack?
No US strike or invasion has happened, and no order has been reported, though US planners have studied military options.
## What's Next
Prediction markets price a US strike on Cuban soil by 31 December at 8.5% and a Cuban government fall at 9.5% by the end of 2026.
## Key takeaway

The US is using sanctions, criminal cases and threats of force to push Cuba's government toward change, with no deal yet but prediction markets pricing a US strike on Cuban soil by December at 8.5%.