# Datafolha Finds 46% Reject Flávio, 45% Lula

> Brazilian voters reject Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula equally in runoff poll.
- Title: Datafolha Finds 46% Reject Flávio, 45% Lula · The Rio Times
- Summary: Brazilian voters reject Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula equally in runoff poll. 46% of Brazilians reject Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff, 45% reject Lula, tied within…
- Keywords: brazil, elections, flávio bolsonaro, lula, datafolha, rejection, runoff, polls, brazil election 2026, news, world, politics
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/datafolha-rejection-flavio-46-lula-45-runoff-2026
- Author: Richard Mann
- Published: 2026-10-23T02:21:54+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: brazil, elections, flávio bolsonaro, lula, datafolha, rejection, runoff, polls, brazil election 2026, news, world, politics
## Datafolha Poll Results
Datafolha found 46% of voters reject Flávio Bolsonaro and 45% reject Lula in Brazil's 2026 runoff election.
## Rejection Rates Change
Flávio's rejection rose 2 points from 44% a week earlier, while Lula's fell 1 point from 46%.
## Margin of Error
The poll has a 2-point margin of error at 95% confidence, making the rejection rates statistically tied.
## Survey Details
Datafolha interviewed 2,154 voters aged 16 and older from Tuesday 20 to Thursday 22 October 2026.
## Other Rejection Groups
3% reject both candidates and 6% reject neither, so some outlets report 48% for each.
## Prediction Markets
Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.6% chance and Lula 23.5% of winning the runoff.
## Runoff Date
Brazil's runoff election occurs on Sunday 25 October 2026, three days after the poll was released.
## Rejection Meaning
Rejection means voters who say they would not vote for a candidate under any circumstances.
## What It Means for Investors
Brazil's currency and stock markets could see sharp price moves based on the runoff result.
## What Is Unknown
How rejection splits by region, income, or age is not known, and turnout for rejected voters is unclear.
## What Happens Next
Brazil's runoff election will be held on Sunday 25 October 2:00 p.m. ET, with the winner taking office for four years.
## Key takeaway

46% of Brazilians reject Flávio Bolsonaro in runoff, 45% reject Lula, tied within margin of error.