# Datafolha Poll Shows Flávio 51%, Lula 49% in Brazil Runoff

> Brazil's final Datafolha poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 51% to 49% in the presidential runoff.
- Title: Datafolha Poll Shows Flávio 51%, Lula 49% in Brazil Runoff
- Summary: Brazil's final Datafolha poll reveals Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula by 51% to 49% in the presidential runoff. Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 51% to 49% in…
- Keywords: flávio bolsonaro, lula, brazil, elections, datafolha, runoff, presidential poll, brazil election 2026, news, world, politics, Poll
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/datafolha-poll-flavio-51-lula-49-final-runoff-2026
- Author: Lucía Martínez
- Published: 2026-10-25T00:19:19+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: flávio bolsonaro, lula, brazil, elections, datafolha, runoff, presidential poll, brazil election 2026, news, world, politics
## Datafolha Poll Release
Datafolha released its final runoff survey on Saturday 24 October at 5:36 p.m. ET.
## Final Poll Numbers
Flávio Bolsonaro has 51% of valid votes and Lula 49% in the final Datafolha poll.
## Margin of Error
The poll has a 2-point margin of error from 4,050 interviews conducted 23-24 October.
## Previous Poll Comparison
Datafolha's previous poll on 22 October showed Flávio at 50.5% and Lula at 49.5%.
## TSE Registration
The survey is registered with Brazil's electoral court under TSE registration BR-09540/2026.
## Prediction Markets
Kalshi traders give Flávio an 80% chance of winning by at least 1 point and Lula 13%.
## Live Election Results
Brazil's runoff election results will be updated live starting Sunday 25 October at 5 p.m. Brasília time.
## Economic Impact
The winner will impact Brazilian stocks, the real, and trade relations with Washington.
## What This Means
A close race within the margin of error means neither candidate is a certain winner.
## Why It Matters
The result will determine Brazil's political direction for the next four years.
## What Happens Next
The official TSE count will publish results on Sunday 25 October after polling closes.
## Key takeaway

Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 51% to 49% in Brazil's final Datafolha poll before the October 25 runoff.