# Democrats suddenly within reach of Senate control

> Betting markets and polls show a dramatic shift toward Democrats taking both chambers at the midterms.
- Title: Democrats suddenly within reach of Senate control · Fortune
- Summary: Betting markets and polls show a dramatic shift toward Democrats taking both chambers at the midterms. Betting markets now give Democrats a sixty-one to…
- Keywords: midterm elections, democrats, republicans, senate, house of representatives, polling, betting markets, suddenly, within, reach, control, Fortune
- Source: Fortune — https://fortune.com/2026/09/22/midterm-polls-show-democrats-taking-senate
- Author: Jim Edwards
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: midterm elections, democrats, republicans, senate, house of representatives, polling, betting markets
## Gas prices and Iran tensions shift voter mood
Gasoline costs four dollars forty-seven per gallon on average. Diesel is six dollars fifty-two. Conflict with Iran continues.
## Betting markets flip on Senate control
Kalshi and Polymarket now show Democrats favored to take the Senate. Kalshi gives them a sixty-one percent chance. Previously it was neck and neck.
## Polymarket shows even stronger Democratic edge
Polymarket gives Democrats a sixty-five percent chance of taking the Senate, reflecting the sudden shift in voter sentiment.
## Generic ballot shows eight-point Democratic lead
Real Clear Politics' generic congressional vote tracker shows Democrats leading Republicans by eight point five percent.
## Analysts raise Democratic odds sharply
Piper Sandler raised Democratic House odds from seventy to eighty percent and Senate odds from forty to forty-five percent.

> Political conditions for Republicans continue to deteriorate and a growing number of races in traditionally Republican territory in the House and Senate look competitive.
## Seven Senate races now toss-ups
Seven Senate races are within two and a half points. The Senate is likely to remain a toss-up going into election day.
## Key takeaway

Betting markets now give Democrats a sixty-one to sixty-five percent chance of taking the Senate, a sharp reversal from predictions of Republican control.