# Don't blame Ukraine for $4.29 gas

> Washington says Kyiv's drones are why you're paying record prices, but the numbers point at a war the U.S. started.
- Title: Don't blame Ukraine for $4.29 gas · Foreign Policy | Shortify
- Summary: Washington says Kyiv's drones are why you're paying record prices, but the numbers point at a war the U.S. started. Refining capacity, not crude supply, is…
- Keywords: oil, iran, ukraine, gas prices, energy, Don't, blame, gas, Foreign Policy
- Source: Foreign Policy — https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/09/11/gas-prices-trump-iran-war-wright-ukraine-russia
- Author: Keith Johnson
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: oil, iran, ukraine, gas prices, energy
## The official story
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been telling interviewers that Ukraine's drone strikes on Russian refineries are why Americans pay record prices at the pump.
## The numbers hurt
Crude is back above $100, around $105. Gasoline hit $4.29 a gallon, up a dollar in a year. Diesel crossed $6 for the first time ever.
## Trump's $5,000 offer
At a Dallas convention, Trump offered voters $5,000 in cash for a Republican midterm vote. That is 830 gallons of diesel, roughly 25 fill-ups for an F-250.
## A war in the worst place
Six months ago the U.S. and Israel opened a war on Iran, in the most energy-critical region on earth. Global energy trade has not worked normally since.
## How closed is Hormuz
Washington says the strait is open. Tanker trackers counting actual ships put flows near 8-9 million barrels a day, down from 20 million before the war.
## Running the gauntlet
Iranian forces blow up the occasional tanker that tries the passage, which keeps the recovery slow. One tanker left the Persian Gulf on Thursday.
## The bypass gets bypassed
Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline to the Red Sea was moving about 5 million barrels a day around the strait. That workaround is now under attack too.
## Houthis take the islands
The Iran-backed group seized coastal positions and islands in southwestern Yemen this week, the exact real estate you need to threaten Red Sea shipping.

> Together, these positions would give the Houthis, and by extension, Iran, far greater scope to influence shipping movements, insurance premiums, and the cost of transporting energy
## Tanker war escalates
Iran shoots at U.S. ships and escorted tankers, so the U.S. military destroys Iranian-linked ones. Twelve of Iran's roughly 60 tankers are gone.
## Iran can take the pain
The naval blockade means Tehran barely exports anyway. The economy is wrecked, but it has been built since 1979 to absorb exactly this.
## Drones are light
Ukraine has hit Russian refineries all year, reaching Siberia lately. But damage gets repaired, and many strikes halt production for only a day.

> Our estimate is that the destroyed capacity is 12-15 percent of total Russian refinery throughput
## Refining is the real chokepoint
Global refinery throughput sits 5 million barrels a day below last year, with U.S. plants already flat out. Russian, Middle Eastern and Chinese refiners are offline.
## Somebody has to take the blame
Farmers face $6 diesel in harvest season, and the developing world gets hit hardest. The politics of who gets named explain the rest.

> Gasoline prices in the United States are the most significant issue ahead of elections, but nobody can blame Trump. So they blame Zelensky.
## Key takeaway

Refining capacity, not crude supply, is the bottleneck, and the biggest chunk of it went offline because of the Iran war, not Ukrainian drones.