# Eight Senate races too close to call

> Election forecasters cannot agree on eight pivotal Senate races that will determine control of Congress.
- Title: Eight Senate races too close to call · TIME | Shortify
- Summary: Election forecasters cannot agree on eight pivotal Senate races that will determine control of Congress.
- Keywords: us senate elections, election forecasting, november 2026, democratic control, swing races, TIME
- Source: TIME — https://time.com/article/2026/11/03/us-election-midterms-forecasters-analysis-senate-race-ratings
- Author: Ruairí Arrieta-Kenna
- Published: 2026-11-03T14:00:00+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: us senate elections, election forecasting, november 2026, democratic control, swing races
## Eight races forecasters cannot agree on
A TIME analysis of ten election forecasters found eight of thirty-five Senate races on November third lack unanimous predictions. Those races are in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas.
## Democrats need four of eight
Democrats would have to win at least four of the eight contested races, assuming other results go as expected, to take control of the upper chamber of Congress.
## Alaska: Peltola versus Sullivan
In Alaska, four forecasters rate the race between Democratic former Representative Mary Peltola and Republican incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan as leaning Democratic. The remaining six call it a toss-up.
## Iowa, Kansas, Maine split forecasters
In Iowa, forecasters split on Republican Representative Ashley Hinson versus Democrat Josh Turek.In Kansas, four forecasters say Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican incumbent Senator Roger Marshall.
## Michigan and Ohio lean Democratic
In Michigan, only one forecaster rates the race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers as a toss-up.Nine rate it Democratic.
## South Carolina and Texas diverge
In South Carolina, eight forecasters favor Republican Senator Darline Graham over Democrat Annie Andrews. In Texas, seven forecasters favor Democrat James Talarico over Republican Ken Paxton, though three call it a toss-up.
## Twenty-seven races show consensus
Of the remaining twenty-seven Senate races, thirteen are unanimously rated for Democrats and fourteen for Republicans. Ratings reflect forecasters' assessments as of seven a.m. ET on November third but are not guaranteed outcomes.
## Key takeaway

Ten major election forecasters disagree on eight of thirty-five Senate races on November third, with Democrats needing to win at least four to take control.