# El Niño drought threatens to deepen southern Africa's poverty

> An expected El Niño drought, rising costs and shrinking humanitarian aid could worsen food insecurity and poverty across southern Africa in 2027.
- Title: El Niño drought threatens to deepen southern Africa's poverty
- Summary: An expected El Niño drought, rising costs and shrinking humanitarian aid could worsen food insecurity and poverty across southern Africa in 2027. El Niño…
- Keywords: el niño, southern africa, drought, food insecurity, poverty, humanitarian aid, south africa, food and agriculture organization, news, politics, Niño, threatens
- Source: Daily Maverick — https://dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2026-10-26-el-nino-threatens-to-deepen-southern-africas-poverty-crisis
- Author: Wandile Sihlobo
- Published: 2026-10-26T16:52:36+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: el niño, southern africa, drought, food insecurity, poverty, humanitarian aid, south africa, food and agriculture organization, news, politics
## Three threats converge in 2027
An expected El Niño drought, rising costs from geopolitical conflicts and shrinking humanitarian aid could worsen food insecurity and poverty across southern Africa in 2027.
## The 2015-16 drought's toll
The Food and Agriculture Organization said the most recent El Niño cycle brought the region's worst drought in more than a century, leaving 61 million people in need of assistance and pushing more than 8…

> the most recent El Niño cycle brought the region's worst drought in more than a century, leaving 61 million people in need of assistance
## Drought forecast for 2026-27
The Food and Agriculture Organization forecast a greater than 50 percent probability of agricultural drought across large parts of Namibia and Botswana, extending into Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa and parts of Mozambique and Madagascar.
## Humanitarian aid is shrinking
Recent wars in the Black Sea and Middle East mean resources ordinarily channelled to natural causes of poverty are now constrained by competing needs in war zones.
## Governments face a narrow window
Farmers have already started planting crops for the 2026-27 season, meaning governments have a limited window to assist.
## Export bans would backfire
In countries with agricultural supplies, it may be tempting to impose export bans to protect domestic supplies.
## South Africa's cushion
South Africa remains in a more fortunate position than much of southern Africa.The 2025-26 season produced a record maize harvest of 17.5 million tonnes against annual consumption of 12.0 million tonnes.
## South Africa may support the region
While South Africa is exposed to the drought challenge as the rest of the region, the impact may be much milder.
## Key takeaway

El Niño drought, geopolitical conflict and reduced humanitarian aid threaten to deepen poverty and food insecurity across southern Africa in 2027, though South Africa's grain reserves offer some regional protection.