# Empires of AI

> US and China race for AI dominance risks global conflict over Taiwan.
- Title: Empires of AI · Foreign Affairs | Shortify
- Summary: US and China race for AI dominance risks global conflict over Taiwan. US and China's AI competition threatens to trigger war over Taiwan as both empires…
- Keywords: united states, china, taiwan, semiconductors, data centers, ai models, fiscal policy, empires, ai race, debt crisis, tech competition, Foreign Affairs
- Source: Foreign Affairs — https://foreignaffairs.com/china/empires-artificial-intelligence-ferguson-klaassen-schmidt
- Author: Niall Ferguson
- Published: 2026-10-20T04:00:00+00:00
- Read time: 2 min
- Topics: ai, united states, china, taiwan, semiconductors, data centers, ai models, fiscal policy, empires, ai race, debt crisis, tech competition
## AI Empires Rise
China and the United States have each built new empires of AI that control knowledge, chips, and infrastructure.
## Imperial History Warnings
Empires often fall from overextension, financial strain, or technological shifts that drain their power.
## AI as Imperial Technology
AI creates a center-periphery structure where US and China control global innovation and infrastructure.
## Scarcity Drives AI Race
AI requires vast energy, minerals, and capital, making it a scarce resource for imperial competition.
## US vs China AI Strategies
China uses state-led investment to build AI; US relies on private capital and regulatory noninterference.
## AI as Imperial Leverage
US and China offer different AI stacks: US provides closed models; China offers open-weight models.
## The Taiwan Chip Crisis
Taiwan's semiconductor monopoly is critical for US AI dominance, making it a flashpoint for conflict.
## Debt and Fiscal Strain
Both US and China face debt crises that threaten their ability to sustain AI infrastructure.
## AI's Double-Edged Sword
AI risks pandemics, cyberattacks, and autonomous weapons while offering economic benefits.
## Imperial Trilemma
Empires must choose between defense, technological leadership, or welfare, neither can do all three.
## Taiwan as Strategic Vulnerability
US and China's reliance on Taiwan for semiconductors makes it a critical target in the AI arms race.
## Risk of AI-Driven War
Autonomous systems could escalate conflicts, making AI the fastest path to war between US and China.
## Peaceful Coexistence?
US and China could agree on AI limits to avoid war but face resistance from China's AI cyberattacks.
## The Speed of Decline
AI's rapid development outpaces political systems, risking collapse before decisions can be made.
## The Final Choice
US and China must decide whether to compete or cooperate before AI reshapes global order.
## Key takeaway

US and China's AI competition threatens to trigger war over Taiwan as both empires struggle with debt and technological rivalry.