# European spy chiefs warn of Russian escalation > Intelligence officials say Moscow could test Nato in months, but Baltic leaders urge caution about stoking panic. - Title: European spy chiefs warn of Russian escalation · the Guardian - Summary: Intelligence officials say Moscow could test Nato in months, but Baltic leaders urge caution about stoking panic. European intelligence chiefs warn Russia… - Keywords: russia, nato, european intelligence, ukraine, sabotage, baltic states, poland, czech republic, latvia, estonia, sweden, kremlin - Source: the Guardian — https://theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/20/baltic-spy-chiefs-warn-moscow-is-preparing-for-more-decisive-action-in-europe - Published: 2026-09-20T16:47:50+00:00 - Read time: 3 min - Topics: russia, nato, european intelligence, ukraine, sabotage, baltic states, poland, czech republic, latvia, estonia, sweden, kremlin ## Polish PM warns of Russian attack Poland's prime minister Donald Tusk told parliament that intelligence assessments suggest Russia might launch an attack with drones or missiles on Nato territory in coming months. ## Tusk says Russia wants to test article five Tusk said Russia's goal would be to prove that article five is more theoretical than practical, suggesting Moscow wants to test Nato's collective defence commitment. > article 5 is more theoretical than practical ## Macron calls warnings sound and documented French president Emmanuel Macron called Tusk's warnings sound and well-documented, and summoned party leaders and twenty twenty-seven presidential candidates to an emergency meeting in Paris. > sound and well-documented ## Czech spy chief warns of possible invasion Michal Koudelka, head of Czech Republic's BIS security service, said a small-scale invasion of Nato territory bordering Russia could be part of Kremlin plans, involving limited incursion or false-flag provocations. > It's possible. It could involve a limited incursion, false-flag provocations, a massive influence campaign ## Koudelka says threat could come in months Koudelka said this scenario could play out in a matter of months, not years, though he added that many people are working to prevent it from happening. > months, not years ## Baltic states urge caution on messaging Officials in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, which border Russian territory, have been more cautious, warning that public talk of imminent attack might play into Kremlin hands and damage their economies. ## Latvia sees no imminent attack signs Normunds Mežviets, director general of Latvia's VDD state security service, said there are no indications of imminent attack, though Moscow is making preparations for more decisive action in Europe. > We don't see indications of an imminent attack ## Mežviets questions whether plans are concrete Mežviets said it remains unclear whether Russia has direct concrete plans or is simply spreading fear and uncertainty as part of overall destabilisation strategy against western society. > It's still an open question if they have direct and concrete plans or if it's just within the context of their overall attempts to spread fear and uncertainty in western society ## Estonia warns against panic on social media Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of Estonia's foreign ministry, decried panic on social media about possible attack, saying if there is reason to fear, Estonia will make that clear. > If there is reason to fear an attack, rest assured: we will make that clear. Until then, keep calm, carry on and support Ukraine ## Kremlin dismisses attack rumours After CIA director John Ratcliffe's surprise visit to Moscow last month, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed rumours of Russian attack on Nato as having nothing to do with reality or Russian intentions. > It has nothing to do with reality and nothing to do with the intentions of the Russian Federation ## Russia's current tactic is escalate to de-escalate Koudelka said Russia's current tactic is escalate to de-escalate, pushing at weak points in western societies to reduce support for Ukraine's war effort through escalating pressure. > They believe if they escalate enough, then European countries will decide not to support Ukraine ## Sweden sees negotiation theatre, not real talks Thomas Nilsson, head of Sweden's military intelligence and security service, said he sees no signs Moscow is seriously considering real negotiations, describing it as negotiation theatre. > I haven't seen any signs that there is a serious consideration in Moscow about real negotiations ## Armed drone at Leipzig airport is gamechanger Nilsson called the recent armed drone incident at Leipzig airport, attributed to Russian intelligence, a gamechanger, as attacks on busy airports could result in loss of life or critical infrastructure damage. > To have an armed UAV drone sent in to a busy airport in the middle of Europe … If you have attacks that could result in losses of life or losses of very critical infrastructure that have a huge implication for society, I think that is a gamechanger ## Russia shifting to specific sabotage targets Mežviets said Russia is moving from randomised attacks to specific targets linked to western backing for Ukraine, including railway infrastructure and defence industry targets, achieving psychological effect alongside physical damage. > We see them looking to attack railway infrastructure, Ukraine support infrastructure. Right now we see a move towards defence industry targets ## Key takeaway European intelligence chiefs warn Russia may attack Nato territory within months to test article five, though Baltic officials caution against amplifying fears that could play into Kremlin strategy.