# Fed Hike Odds Jump After US Inflation

> Prediction markets now show 47.5% chance of Fed rate hike in October after hot US inflation report.
- Title: Fed Hike Odds Jump After US Inflation · The Rio Times
- Summary: Prediction markets now show 47.5% chance of Fed rate hike in October after hot US inflation report. Prediction markets indicate 47.5% probability of a…
- Keywords: fed, inflation, prediction markets, us consumer prices, interest rates, october meeting, fomc, news, world, politics, Hike, Odds
- Source: The Rio Times — https://riotimesonline.com/fed-october-rate-hike-odds-jump-after-us-inflation
- Author: Richard Mann
- Published: 2026-10-14T13:30:52+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: fed, inflation, prediction markets, us consumer prices, interest rates, october meeting, fomc, news, world, politics
## Prediction Markets Update
Polymarket prices a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in October at 47.5%, up 29 points in 24 hours from about 18%.
## Inflation Report Trigger
US consumer prices rose 0.6% in September and 3.7% over 12 months with gasoline up 9.1% in the month.
## Current Fed Rate
The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75%–4.00% on 16 september after a unanimous 12–0 vote.
## Next Fed Meeting
The Federal Open Market Committee meets on 27–28 october with the decision published on 28 october.
## Market Reaction
Polymarket traded about us$4.2 million in the past 24 hours with total volume of us$38.1 million.
## Kalshi Market Data
Kalshi prices a rate above 4.00% at about 50% with 4,400 contracts traded in 24 hours.
## Why Odds Moved
Gasoline prices rose 9.1% in september accounting for more than half of the monthly inflation increase.
## Inflation Impact
Higher rates increase borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, credit cards and business credit.
## Latin America & Africa Impact
Higher us rates make life harder for emerging markets by raising dollar debt costs and pulling investment.
## Market Uncertainty
It is unknown whether the fed will treat one hot month as a trend with the next meeting in october.
## What Next
The fed will publish its decision on 28 october with the next meeting on 27–28 october.
## Key takeaway

Prediction markets indicate 47.5% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in October following a sharp US inflation report.