# Fed Rate Hold Could Drop Stocks

> JPMorgan predicts S&P 500 could fall 1.25% to 1.75% if Fed holds rates steady.
- Title: Fed Rate Hold Could Drop Stocks · Yahoo Finance | Shortify
- Summary: JPMorgan predicts S&P 500 could fall 1.25% to 1.75% if Fed holds rates steady. Unexpected Fed rate hold may trigger significant stock declines.
- Keywords: fed, jpmorgan, s&p 500, spider, treasury yields, inflation, interest rates, stock market, treasury, warsh, federal reserve, rate hike
- Source: Yahoo Finance — https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fed-meeting-interest-rate-decision-133204578.html
- Published: 2026-09-16T13:32:04+00:00
- Read time: 1 min
- Topics: fed, jpmorgan, s&p 500, spider, treasury yields, inflation, interest rates, stock market, treasury, warsh, federal reserve, rate hike
## Fed Rate Hold Risk
JPMorgan estimates S&P 500 could drop 1.25% to 1.75% if Fed holds rates steady.
## Market Pricing Shifts
Polymarket traders show 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike versus 11% for no change.
## Inflation Concerns
Warsh's comments on inflation credibility could push 10-year Treasury yields higher.
## JPMorgan Scenarios
JPMorgan outlines five possible stock market reactions based on Fed messaging.
## Key Timing
Fed releases rate decision at 2 p.m. ET followed by Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m.
## Key takeaway

Unexpected Fed rate hold may trigger significant stock declines.