# Five starts don't tell you who Kade Anderson is

> Bryce Miller looked untouchable and Bryan Woo looked cooked, and neither first impression held up.
- Title: Five starts don't tell you who Kade Anderson is | Shortify
- Summary: Bryce Miller looked untouchable and Bryan Woo looked cooked, and neither first impression held up. A rookie's first five starts are a snapshot, not a…
- Keywords: mariners, kade anderson, pitching, mlb, prospects, sports, Five, starts, don't, tell, Kade, Anderson
- Source: Seattle Mariners On SI — https://si.com/mlb/mariners/onsi/before-judging-kade-anderson-remember-how-bryce-miller-and-bryan-woo-started-for-the-mariners
- Published: 2026-09-15T18:43:47+00:00
- Read time: 4 min
- Topics: mariners, kade anderson, pitching, mlb, prospects, sports
## Five starts, zero verdicts
Some Mariners fans have already soured on Kade Anderson after five big league starts. That sample is barely enough to learn a pitcher's pregame routine.

> Five starts are barely enough to learn a pitcher's pregame routine.
## The ugly night in Anaheim
On Sept. 14 the Angels hit Anderson for five earned runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings. He struck out five and walked nobody, but the contact piled up fast.
## Where the ERA sits
Through five starts Anderson has a 5.33 ERA over 25 1/3 innings, with a 1.42 WHIP, 21 strikeouts, eight walks and four homers allowed.
## Woo is the closer comp
Bryan Woo's first five starts: 4.37 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 32 strikeouts and six walks in 22 2/3 innings. Anderson's line looks much more like that than like a disaster.
## Miller's impossible opening
Bryce Miller went 31 1/3 innings with a 1.15 ERA, a 0.51 WHIP, 28 strikeouts, three walks and no home runs. That is a fever dream, not a baseline.

> Then there's Miller who delivered a statistical fever dream
## A record nobody repeats
In 2023 Miller became the first pitcher since at least 1901 to throw six-plus innings and allow four or fewer hits in each of his first five appearances.
## Then the league corrected him
The Yankees and Rangers hammered Miller for 15 earned runs in seven combined innings across his next two starts. The magic evaporated in about a week.
## He turned out fine anyway
The crash didn't erase Miller's future any more than the hot start guaranteed it. The next season he posted a 2.94 ERA over 180 1/3 innings.
## Woo's debut was a disaster
Woo gave up six earned runs in two innings in his first outing in Texas. Over his next four starts he allowed five earned runs in 20 2/3 innings.
## Development isn't a line
Anyone who locked in an opinion of Woo after that debut missed the pitcher taking shape right behind it. Rookies don't improve on a schedule.

> Rookie development isn't linear, no matter how we try to draw it up.
## The strikeouts fell off a cliff
Anderson punched out 40.5 percent of Double-A hitters. In the majors that rate is 19.6 percent. Woo struck out 32 of his first 96 batters; Anderson has 21 of 107.
## The stuff still misses bats
Anderson's 22.0 percent whiff rate beats Miller's 18.5 percent over the same stretch. The problem isn't swing and miss, it's converting it into outs.
## He's pitching from behind
Anderson throws a first-pitch strike 60.7 percent of the time. Miller and Woo were both near 66 percent, and Anderson has no elite velo or spin to bail him out.
## The question that matters
Forget the ERA. Can Anderson sequence his way into two-strike counts and finish them, or did he arrive without a real put-away pitch?

> Can Anderson improve his sequencing and turn scattered whiffs into completed strikeouts
## A four-pitch blueprint
Anderson throws a four-seamer 41.5 percent of the time, a slider 25.6, a changeup 17.8 and a curveball 15.1. Miller and Woo leaned on fastballs about 70 to 77 percent.
## Deception over velocity
Anderson is a lefty sitting around 93.6 mph. He needs hitters guessing at speeds, shapes and locations, and command is what will unlock that.
## Gilbert is the model
In 2024 Logan Gilbert led with his slider at 32.0 percent and threw his four-seamer 30.7. That spread produced a 3.23 ERA and 220 strikeouts in 208 2/3 innings.
## Even the good ones adapt
Woo's four-seamer is getting hit harder in 2026, and Miller has cut his to 40 percent while pushing his splitter to 24.4 as his spin has dipped.
## One fastball shape
Hitters are batting .342 off Anderson's four-seamer. Woo, Kirby, Hancock, Miller and Gilbert all pair theirs with a sinker or cutter. Anderson is the lone outlier.

> Anderson is the outlier among the Mariners' homegrown starters.
## That's an offseason project
A sinker or a cutter could make the same velocity far less predictable. September is no time for a new grip, but the winter is, and a 22-year-old has earned that patience.

> Writing off a 22-year-old after five starts is even less defensible.
## Key takeaway

A rookie's first five starts are a snapshot, not a verdict. Watch the pitch mix and the strike rate, not the ERA.